GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

 

FORMAT DEPENDENT – SHANE MUMFORD

2016:  Games/21   Averages:  85 DT/98 SC

So obviously there was a glitch in the system last year as Shane Mumford did the unthinkable and punched out 21 games, the first time he’s done that in his lengthy career. He again was particularly valuable for SuperCoach drafters, registering the 4th highest average for ruckmen, outperforming higher draft picks like Stefan Martin and Sam Jacobs. He even managed to finish as the 6th highest averaging DT ruck, so there was that too.

But for mine, there’s absolutely zero upside to drafting Mumford to be your ruck in DT formats in 2017. Aside from the horrific games history, Mumford does zero around the ground. This is a man who had 37 hit outs and 11 tackles (81 DT points) in a match and DIDN’T TON UP. He averaged only 2 kicks per game to go along with 9 handballs, killing his scoring upside. He doesn’t take marks. He doesn’t kick goals. He also gave away the most free kicks in the league last year. If he slips through to the tail end of your draft, OK, jump on, but don’t pay the piper and take him before round 10.

In SuperCoach the story changes. The great hit out numbers, the tackles, the contested nature of his game is everything SC loves. He registered ten 100’s from his 21 games and has been capable of big scores in the past, but didn’t reach big heights in 2016. In fact he had more games under 80 (4) than over 120 (2). I can get behind drafting Mumford as the 5th-7th  ruck off the board in this form as he does have upside on his 98 average from this year and is better than the late round guys, but the injury history scares me. Buyer beware.

 

PUMP UP THE VOLUME – JOSH KELLY

2016:  Games/22   Averages: 90 DT/87 SC

When we’re talking ‘breakouts’, people will generally want to be on it more than the old guy who MAY fall off a cliff. Why? Because you own it. You called it right. That player becomes one of YOUR GUYS. This, in essence, is the heart of fantasy footy. You saw it happening, and Josh Kelly is a player that people want to get behind and be there when it happens. He’s a high draft pick. On a good team. He’s a gun. He’s into his 4th year. The questions are: does it happen this year and what should his draft range be?

Kelly is a tough player to project because everything is there in his game to see the scoring increase, the only problem is the team he’s in – it’s too good. I’d love to see this guy at a team like North where he’d be the prominent outside mid. As it his, he’s in a team with Shiel, Scully, Coniglio, Griffen, Smith, Whifield, Hopper, Deledio and inside bull Ward.  Since Kelly relies on pure volume not being a huge accumulator of tackles or marks, the way the GWS mids share the ball is a problem for his fantasy upside. His scoring splits when Ryan Griffen was in the side are particularly alarming: a 14 point drop in DT scoring and a 15 point drop in SC show that when there’s more guys, scoring and game time (a 4% drop) go down. Even more concerning is Deledio’s arrival. Kelly is a player GWS want using the ball going inside 50; something Deledio is fantastic at, so again, more sharing.

Kelly has only hit the 30 disposal mark once in his 60 games, which is a worry for an outside player. This is a team loaded with options and weapons, and yes, Kelly will have his games. But he will throw out a whole lot of sub-90 scores on the way. Once Ryan Griffen retires, I’m interested. If he gets forward status, I’m interested. Based on DT pricing, once we remove DPP’s, he’s listed as the 55th mid. There are players above him I don’t like, but players below him I like more. He’s certainly worth drafting as all the skills are there and he’s developing, but I just think there’s going so many times he let’s you down. I don’t see the averages going over 95 so he’s taken round 15 onwards for me.

 

IS IT SMOKO YET? – DYLAN SHIEL

2016:  Games/21   Averages: 98 DT/99 SC

The curious case of Dylan Shiel. Looks a million bucks and has teased fantasy coaches for a few years now. It’s fair to say we’ve received plenty of questions about the GWS mids, everyone wondering which is the best to take, when they’ll breakout. My best answer would be Steve Coniglio and Tom Scully, as they have the highest game time of the mids (Ward obviously in SC drafts is also a gun). And time on ground is largely Dylan Shiel’s biggest problem. Of the top 20 ball winners in the AFL in 2016, no one had lower TOG (74%) than Shiel. Like Kelly, when Griffen was in the team his scoring took a huge dive too, to the tune of 13DT points and 9SC points per game.

The fact Shiel can rack up serious possession numbers in limited time should give fantasy players hope he can become an elite scorer, but it’s hard to see him breaking out at the moment with the low game time and the fact he’s not doing anything else to boost his scoring hurts. If you want to be a 100 ave mid and you’re not getting 30+ disposals, you’d better be laying 4 tackles, taking 4 marks or hitting the scoreboard – all things Shiel isn’t doing on a per season average basis.

Like I said though, there IS upside if he can get on the park more, lay some tackles or take a mark or two more. He’s shown the ability to go 130+ in games. He can beat tags, he can find the footy, he wins his own footy and is in a winning team. Would prefer him in SC draft, but would take at current value in DT as well.