A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 4
EACH WEEK I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday and Friday (unless there’s a Thursday game, in which case, it’s a day earlier).
I hope some of you were able to strike a deal based off of last week’s column some of the #buy players certainly had great games, none more so than Handsome Tom. Anyways, let’s get into the deals!
BUY – LUKE PARKER (M) – We all know how good Parker is, but his fantasy output is WAY down obviously. Would’ve been around a second round pick in most leagues and certainly isn’t returning value. This is a #buy candidate I’m very bullish on. Parker is down 4 uncontested disposals per game and hasn’t kicked a major. I am banking that as the cavalry slowly return for the Swans, they win more, thus score more and control the ball more. All Parker’s other numbers remain good, so I’m definitely in the market to buy, even though the return to premo might be a slow burn whilst the troops return.
ADD – BRANDON MATERA (F) – Two big scores in two games is what it is. Matera looked good on the weekend, slotting goals and working up and down the ground finding the ball. Some outside polish to compliment the number of blue collar workers in this team should equal points for Matera. Has the penny dropped? We’ll see over the coming weeks, either way, he’s free in a lot of leagues!
HOLD – HEATH SHAW (D) – I know a lot of salary cappers are bailing out on Heath, but if you drafted him, you probably did it early. Selling low on your premiums is a big call, I’m suggesting to stick fat with Heath and his slow start. Conversely, I wouldn’t suggest paying the high price to trade him in, as his role hasn’t been as fantasy friendly through the first four weeks. If you can find a panicked owner willing to sell at unders, go grab him, but I’m not paying the piper.
ADD – CHARLIE DIXON (F) – Port are playing Carlton. Handsome Tom just kicked 7 on Carlton. Dixon has played well. My maths is hazy but even I can put that together.
ADD – ANY WEST COAST MIDFIELDER (M) – If you need a plug and play option for a week in the mids, look no further than West Coast. Going up against Hawthorn, we’ve seen the Hawks get gashed by mids, especially pacy ones. Motlop, Hall, Cameron have all been big recently. If you need a forward, even guys like Hill pop for us if you’re desperate.
HOLD – PATRICK CRIPPS (M) – Cripps is a tough player to rate, because as the season progresses, he SHOULD improve quite a bit. Inside mids frequently have better second halves as the game slows down with weather and tactics. The problem is that so much of Cripps’ value comes from his inside work and that is down in 2017, a lot in part due to the blistering form of Marc Murphy. Cripps’ 25% team clearance rate was the highest in the AFL last year by a wide margin and to date he isn’t matching and in fact isn’t even leading Carlton for clearance % this year (Murphy is). Can his scoring improve? Of course, but he isn’t one to find a heap of ball in transition nor go forward and kick goals. He’s hard to trade for being a ‘new hotness’ type player, and hard to sell due to average. A strong hold.
DROP – ALLEN CHRISTENSEN (F) – He hurt long time.
BUY – STEVE HILL (M) – Hill is a great guy to buy as he’s never going to be someone’s top mid, and most likely not in their top 3 mids. Yet as Freo run this youth movement which is yielding results, of their gun mids (Neale, Fyfe, Mundy), Hill is the only one who isn’t likely to be rotated through other lines. His score last week was pretty good given he spent a good amount of time off the ground after copping a knock, but that might not register with the Steve Hill owner in your league. A nice piece to try grab.
SELL – KADE KOLODJASHNIJ (D) – KK just plays too lock down and doesn’t push up enough to have boom value. He doesn’t have the wheels of Saad or the experience of Harbrow and is relegated to being a lock down, secondary type option from defence. Doesn’t win any contested ball or get on the end of marks (much like Mills so far this year) to help anyone out. Every chance his scores are even worse with some of the talls being injured up on the Gold Coast.
ADD – ANY ESSENDON DEFENDER (D) – Playing defenders against Collingwood has been money this year, I expect that to continue this week. McGrath, Baguley, Kelly are all in line to top 85, which is what we’re after from our plug and play options. I’ve managed to grab McGrath in a spot and am definitely rolling him out.
ADD – SCOTT LYCETT (R/F) – Apparently ahead of initial recovery timetable, the Eagles big man is now listed at 4-6 weeks, which could put him in line for a senior recall somewhere around the byes. With Gawn down, the Goldy situation and some underperforming forwards, if you can stick Lycett on your bench and hold him for a few weeks, it could give you a big boost in the second half of the year.
SELL – GARY ABLETT JR (M) – I still don’t know why we put the junior in, it’s hardly like his old man’s about to dust off the boots, but anyway, I’m saying now’s a great time to sell the little master. He looks to have lost a step for mine, and just isn’t the monster SuperCoacher of years past. You might hold in DT, but in SC, with the lower contested rate, I’m selling. Also consider this: 3 of the 4 teams the Suns have played so far, are teams we can all realistically say aren’t making the 8 in the Blues, Hawks and Lions. These teams also get gashed for midfield fantasy points. The other match, GWS, Ablett failed to score anything reasonable. The upcoming draw for the Suns is quite tough, plus they have the awkward round 9 bye. I will admit, the Suns fantasy finals draw is pretty sweet, but is Ablett durable enough these days to suggest he’ll be there? He’s started well and his name carries value, you may be able to snag a gun whilst the getting’s good.
Good luck and good dealing this week!