A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 5
EACH WEEK I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday and Friday (unless there’s a Thursday game, in which case, it’s a day earlier).
BUY – LUKE PARKER (M) – See last week’s article. It’s still a thing. It’s turning. Swan’s draw opens right up.
SELL – ANDY OTTEN (D and some systems F) – And the F is where we’re at with Otten, who, if you scooped out of your pool has been pumping out some great scores lately. However, Josh Jenkins is about to return and Daniel Talia is (maybe) injured, meaning the Crows will most likely look to use Otten in a defensive role, where his scoring isn’t likely to continue to be anywhere near as good. They could also call upon another player to come into defence, however that still doesn’t mean Jenkins stays out. Definitely a good flip candidate.
DROP – JAKE SPENCER ( R ) – Gotta feel for the guy finally getting a chance and getting injured, but being out through to the bye stages means this is an easy drop.
ADD – GEELONG PLAYERS – OK, so we’ve been running defenders against Collingwood with pretty good success, but coming off a 5 day break, going against Geelong, I’m taking any Cats I can get my hands on. Guthrie, Blicavs, GHS, Cockatoo. The funny thing about Collingwood is they’re so bad at converting inside 50s, there will be games they get positive regression and convert, surprising us all. Collingwood have played Geelong tough lately, but this isn’t that spot for mine.
ADD – BRENDON AH CHEE (M/F) – Still bullish on Ah Chee getting a game sooner rather than later. Boak’s injury opens up a spot and Ah Chee has been doing nothing wrong in the magoo’s. Also a tasty matchup with Brisbane awaits. Has some goal nous so there is upside in this matchup – if he cracks the 22!
ADD – AARON YOUNG (F) – Is averaging nicely when Port win, which I expect them to do against the Lions (sorry Lions fans!). Low ownership so there’s every chance he’s available in your league. Better SC play than DT.
ADD – MASON WOOD (F) – Low ownership, so is available in a lot of leagues, I would have no hesitation in snapping up Wood. Was quite good in a tough loss, this guy has all the physical tools to be a special player. I like how North have been playing despite the losses, they find themselves in an interesting matchup with the Suns this week. I’d hope to have better options so I didn’t have to start him right away and see what he can do. Really like the upside, hopefully Wood can have a decent run of games to show us what he can do.
BUY – JOSH JENKINS (F) – I’m not really a fan of buying guys like Josh Jenkins who are not guaranteed to be startable every week, but I really want a piece of the Crows forward line and Josh is certainly going to cost less at this point than Tex, Good Personality Tom and Eddie Betts. The Crows look the real deal and face what I would call a reasonably good draw plus have good matchups when your fantasy finals are on. His average is killed due to his injury game. Due back soon, certainly worth finding out if you can flip a low end mid for him.
BUY – JACK STEVEN (M) – We know Steven has been a great scorer, although he can be polar in his scoring, his 2017 hasn’t started off great. But one thing that hasn’t happened yet – he hasn’t played in a win. Last year Steven averaged 104 DT across the season, but 116 DT in wins. That is significant. Playing in 3 losses so far, coupled with him missing two games makes him a great buy low candidate.
SELL – BRANDON ELLIS (M) – OK, so if you’re in a league where he gained defender status, you may HOLD, however, if he’s just a MID, sell or even DROP. The reason Ellis isn’t scoring this year? Marks. Richmond have changed their game plan and the sideways chipping game is out, which is where Ellis built his score. Richmond are down a whopping 30 marks a game on average, Ellis is down 4. Given he doesn’t win his own ball (as a general rule), this is affecting his possession count as well. I think we’re all enjoying Richmond’s new fast is fast style, just it isn’t great news for this Tiger’s fantasy output.
ADD – BEN BROWN (F) – Like Sideshow Bob against the Suns this week as a forward stream. Key forwards are going well in this matchup, with Cameron, Casboult, Roughead, Hipwood and Lynch scoring nicely for fantasy. Brown scored 92DT and 110SC in this matchup last year. Owned in hardly any leagues, a decent option if you’re in need.
SELL – JACK RIEWOLDT (F) – Richmond are hot fire right now, especially Jack Roo, who’s banged out a couple of monsters. Cracking the 120 in SC back to back along with a very healthy DT average makes him a decent sell option with teams struggling for forward options. If he kept this pace up it would be an outlier in his career, and not to rile up the Tiger faithful, but Richmond probably won’t go undefeated. Riewoldt will likely begin to return to the mean, that doesn’t mean you can’t cash in though.
Good luck and good dealing this week!