A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 6
EACH WEEK I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday and Friday (unless there’s a Thursday game, in which case, it’s a day earlier).
BUY – HEATH SHAW (D) – Coming in at unders on the last two seasons, Nick Haynes’ injury has opened up a more rebounding friendly role for Shaw, who had been playing further up the ground than usual early in 2017. Getting 23 kicks last week is a good sign Shaw can return to his devastating best, certainly worth throwing out an offer if you could use a gun defender. I also think the return of Coniglio could positively affect his scoring, being a great two way runner.
ADD – JIMMY WEBSTER (D) – The Saints half back is in great nick at the moment, pumping out decent scores in two of the last three weeks. This week he gets to take on the Giants, a team that defenders have been scoring well against so far this season. Nice plug and play option, you might even be able to get some value in a trade if he scores well again.
ADD – CAM PEDERSEN (F) – Should do pretty nicely in the sole ruck role for the Demons, and does have forward chops as well so should see healthy game time. Looks like he will be safe to carry through to the bye rounds and will most likely score you a very playable average in that time.
BUY – TOBY GREENE (F) – Suspended for a couple of weeks, we’re presented with a nice buy opportunity on one of the competition’s gun forwards. Yes, you have to carry him for two weeks, but he’s not injured, is in a great team and has shown to be a terrific fantasy scorer without suffering the ceiling the midfielders at GWS do.
SELL – JOSH KELLY (M) – I think now is a great time to sell Kelly in a redraft league. Why? Because everyone wants him in their team, his value is huge. I often mention players as being ‘the new hotness’ and, like Hansel, Kelly is so hot right now. He’s averaging over 100 in both DT and SC and is no doubt returning value on his draft value. The thing is though, we’re about to see the return of Steve Coniglio and probably Lachie Whitfield, and that’s not a great thing. We noticed last year that Coniglio was the one constant fantasy scorer in that midfield when it was up and running, and guys like Dylan Shiel and Kelly were affected negatively when the midfield was at full capacity. He’ll still have his scores, but would expect them to fluctuate. Add in the possible resurrection of Deledio later in the year and there just isn’t enough fantasy points to go around for everyone to score big all the time. Keep in mind, when I’m saying sell, I’d want a GREAT deal in return, which I think is attainable.
DROP – SHANE BIGGS (D) – Keep an eye on team sheets and maybe don’t if you’re in a very deep league, but if you’re not getting a game when Boyd is rested and Morris is out already, things aren’t looking to good for your chances of getting a game. Did perform well in the VFL on the weekend though, so is some chance of a recall.
ADD – LUKE McDONALD (D) – The former top 10 pick is starting to put things together from a fantasy perspective and is throwing up some decent D5 scores. Worth a bench spot at least.
HOLD – BERNIE VINCE (D/M) – We’ve been getting questions from listeners about buying low on Bernie Vince and I get it. Coming into the season Bernie was a high end D2 on the ranks. The problem buying low on Vince is he hasn’t been horrific and what you’re buying him at is most likely somewhere between where he is and what we thought at draft time. But I’m not sure he gets back to that sort of value. He’s been shifted in roles which has affected his scores, had players (Hibberd, Hunt, etc) shift around him and it’s been ordinary. Conversely, I’m not selling low because he’s not been unplayable, he just hasn’t been great and could always get back to high end D2 numbers.
HOLD – BRODIE GRUNDY ( R ) – We know Grundy isn’t the same dominant ruck when Mason Cox is on the park with him, but that was built in at the start of the year. Cox isn’t going to play every game from here on out, zero chance, so don’t be selling low just because the big Yank is scaring you. Just ride the bumps, good and bad.
SELL – DANIEL WELLS (M) – Woo! Wells is back! A low volume mid who doesn’t tackle and is frequently injured. Oh yeah. Scored ok first two weeks. Please trade before the inevitable.
ADD – MICHAEL JOHNSON (D) – For some reason Johnson is pretty lowly owned, last three weeks he’s been solid and putting up some ok scores. Has been very fantasy relevant in the past and is worth adding if he’s sitting on your waiver wire.
BUY – PATRICK DANGERFIELD (M) – Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?! Look, here’s the thing, it’s gonna cost you to try get Danger, and it damn well should. However, he’s allegedly carrying injured ribs which would explain the crappy scoring the last couple of weeks – however, there really aren’t many opportunities to grab the best player in fantasy. This is one, especially if the Danger owner hasn’t read the latest reports re ribs. I’m not saying give away Dahlhaus and Sloane or anything, but it’s worth having a crack if you want to risk it for the biscuit.
Good trading this week and best of luck in your matchups!