A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 8
EACH WEEK I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try and improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday.
Interesting week this week, with byes for Port Adelaide and Gold Coast. You’ll most likely have at least one player on bye or injured, making waiver pickups crucial! Of course, it also presents the aggressive owner a big opportunity: to try trade for a player (or two!) on bye at a discount, giving you a lower chance of winning THIS week, but over the main byes an advantage, and perhaps into the fantasy finals. Of course, the flipside, if you’re struggling, you might try trade a player on bye to help snare a much-needed win. Both strategies are sound for their respective ladder positions. Now let’s talk deals!
HOLD – JESSE HOGAN (F) – The main thing to dominate football headlines this week has been the unfortunate news about Jesse Hogan. Of course, we at the Draft Doctors were as saddened as the football community was and certainly hope for only the best outcome and a clean bill of health for the Demon superstar. The good news is that things sound positive. Of course, there’s a fantasy spin on all this – and owners want to know what to do. BTW, if you find my commenting on this from a fantasy perspective distasteful, I appreciate that and don’t mean to cause offence, however fantasy analysis is why we’re on this page. I’m a firm HOLD on Hogan, as the news IS positive and the Demon’s fantasy finals schedule is good for a forward. I also think he’s a much better option than the free agent pool. I won’t be taking lowball offers on him, nor will I be looking to buy a player with a large window of return. If he gets dropped to your pool, I’d certainly be picking him up and seeing how things shake out if it doesn’t take away from your squad. I look forward to seeing the big number one back soon, kicking bags.
ADD – NATHAN WILSON (D) – We spoke about Wilson on last week’s pod as a great pickup to play against the Pies and he duly delivered a great score for your fantasy side. Still only owned in 53% of Ultimate Footy leagues, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about Wilson’s role going forward. A lot of injuries in the defence at GWS should hopefully release Wilson as a playmaker more whilst others take more lock down roles.
ADD – BEN KEAYS (F) – More a pickup for rebuilding keeper teams though he has appeal being listed as a forward, we’ve seen as the midfield of Brisbane is hit by injury, opportunity has increased for Keays. Highly rated in his draft year, I think there’s reason to suggest he can continue to build on his recent good form. Might be a sneaky, sneaky option as a holdover for next season where he could potentially have a breakout third season and has some value this season as a forward. Only owned in 21% of Ultimate Footy teams.
BUY – JOSH J KENNEDY (F) – With the caveat that this is a better trade if your finals are to be played between rounds 19 and 22. A lot of plus matchups, home games and a handy round 12 bye dominate the schedule for the Eagles. The big thing is the round 19 and 21 matchups for the Eagles – home against the Lions and Blues – plus matchups if I ever saw them. That could go a long way to leading you into a fantasy Grand Final. You might think it’s too early to start looking ahead, but with the round 12 bye doing it now makes sense. Kennedy is such a dominant forward, he’s really worth grabbing if you can swing a deal.
BUY – TAYLOR WALKER (F) – Must be key forward week, as another great buy presents itself right here. A couple of disappointing losses for the Crows and the shine is well and truly off. Walker’s average is highly affected by the stinker he had two weeks ago v North. He really hasn’t let you down outside of that and the Crows are about to run into a string of pretty good matchups – Brisbane (A), Fremantle (H), Geelong (A), St Kilda (H), BYE, Hawthorn (H), Carlton (A). If he’s not letting you down in average matchups, I LOVE him in some of those! Of course, there’s a couple of tricky ones, but he’s a matchup crusher on any given week. If the Walker owner won’t deal, JOSH JENKINS could be a discount option at a much more attainable price (or free in your pool).
DROP – BEN REID (D) – The Ghost has been okay when playing this year, but injured heading into the byes and I’m flat out bailing. Plenty of options in defence this year, no reason to hang on to a guy who turns a two week strain into a two month absence more often than I eat a nutritious breakfast.
SELL – STEVE CONIGLIO (M) – Unless you’re seriously minted, unbeaten, rolling in diamonds at the top of your league, I’m bailing if I can get a bite. And if you are a Coniglio owner, I’d be selling him to the jerk on top of your league ladder! Ten weeks is just way too long and really, what’s the guarantee he comes back and averages over 100 in the stacked GWS midfield? I know some of you will be thinking, well, what can I get? I’d be looking at players with a low profile or tarnished #brand, like a Cunnington, Menegola, basically guys who are producing but no-one really wants. Hey, maybe the Josh Caddy owner wants to talk if he hasn’t quit!
SELL – DYLAN SHIEL (M) – Okay, this guy should be an easier sell. I really, really want Shiel to be a fantasy star. And he should be. I wanted him to get a bump from the Coniglio injury. But it’s not gonna happen. If he scores big any week, it won’t shock me, he’s a stud. But we got the clearest indication he’s not going to get enough time on ground to be the 115 ave player it feels like he should be. Ward, Scully, Whitfield and Kelly all saw 90% game time or more. In fact, Coniglio played a higher % of game time than Shiel despite being injured for a quarter. Points per minute can be a great indicator of fantasy potential, but when you’re like Shiel and can’t crack more than 74% despite your team being down rotations all match, sell. Average is still decent so should be a handy piece to flip.
ADD – SCOTT SELWOOD (M) – 57% owned on Ultimate Footy, I think this could be a savvy pick if you need some midfield cover. Been going ok in the reserves and Geelong will no doubt swing the axe after their well-publicised poor tackling efforts from last week. Selwood can rack up tackles at will, and given the wet weather forecast, it could make sense to pick him up.
ADD – ANDREW SWALLOW (M) – As above, ownership 59%. If he gets named, this dude’s playing for his career.
BUY – HANDSOME TOM LYNCH (F) – You know, the Gold Coast one. Anyways, a lot of people (including me) were expecting Lynch to go full ham and be the dominant key forward in the league. Well, so far, I think owners would have hoped for a little more. He’s been ok, but had a shocker in China. He’s on bye this week. His owners aren’t stoked about this. If I could name one of the players on bye this week to target, it’s EASILY Lynch. A lot of good matchups await the Suns after their bye and their fantasy finals draw is the sort where Lynch could have two 120+ games.
SELL – DAVID MUNDY (M) – Sell matchwinner David Mundy? Yeah. A midfielder who’s had only had two DT tons so far has limited appeal to me. Average is ok at the moment after a monster game in round 3. Always a potential victim of role change, now’s a good time to sell, people are high on him. Old as hell, younger players are stepping up, Steve Hill is about to return – cashing in makes a lot of sense.
Good luck in your trading and matchups this week!