A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 10
EACH WEEK I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try and improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday and Friday (unless there’s a Thursday game, in which case, it’s a day earlier).
So, the bye rounds are here and people everywhere be panicking, going full Doomsday Preppers and digging holes to live in underground shelter where Chris Fagan can’t ravage them anymore. However, it’s a really good time to get deals done as coaches are trying to snare wins, others are happy with a loss and it’s a bit of an action extravaganza. Waiver priority becomes a factor, especially after the first wave of drops for the week and people drop players you like.
I will add the caveat that I understand it might be hard to make moves in your league with the byes, so keep in mind not to get upset when people have different strategies going on. Also, I realise that some people aren’t playing league games over the byes, so use your best judgement when it comes to trading.
Anyways, onto some deals!
SELL – SCOTT SELWOOD (M) – 34 tackles in 2 games for someone you dragged off the waiver wire? Nice, Gary. Nice, but pretty unsustainable. There’s three main ball winners in the midfield for Geelong, and it already has a Selwood. I’d be trying to flip Scooter because I just don’t think he can keep it up and I don’t think he’s going to start finding 23 disposals a week. I could be wrong and he could keep up double figure tackles, but I’m looking at the same score build Libba had going early in the year. As soon as his tackles dropped to 7 per game, his score fell off a cliff. 7 tackles is a great number, but without the possessions, it made Libba hard to field and got him dropped. I feel the same for Selwood.
ADD – SCOTT LYCETT (R/F) – For some reason Lycett sits at only 65% ownership on Ultimate. If he’s available in your league, grab a Coke and a smile and Scott Lycett up. If you get that reference, you’re my people. He’s a week or 2 away and will be the numero uno ruck out West Coast way. Has scored well in that role historically.
BUY – JESSE HOGAN (F) – Hasn’t played much for someone who technically hasn’t been injured. Suspended, granted leave, operation. This guy is a star and provided he returns from his operation successfully (which all sounds positive), he could be a second half difference maker. Expect Melbourne to improve once Gawn returns and their structure doesn’t resemble the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
HOLD – STEFAN MARTIN R) – Salary cappers are trading out Stef and with good reason, but if you drafted Stef, my advice is to stay the course. The Lions didn’t look any better for playing the 2 ruck setup and if you have Stef, you’ll know you have one of the best ruckmen out there when Archie Smith is in the magoos. Obviously, you’re not buying Stef, but if you’re trying to sell, what are you legitimately going to get? Maybe rolling the dice on a swap for Gawn? I think it’s really going to be a struggle to get fair value unless someone believes Smith is a short term in for Brisbane.
HOLD – BRAD EBERT (M) – It’s flying around the fantasy community this week that Brad Ebert is a fast starter who tends to have poor second halves. This is true, historically. Ebert is averaging a really high clip. Here’s why he’s a hold for me though. He’s not got any more bye weeks. He has REALLY solid time on ground. Gray and Boak are rotating forward. The Chad is injured. SPP is a liability at times. There isn’t anyone else to go through that midfield who can score well besides Wines. To be honest, with all the negatives out there on Ebert for salary cap, he’s probably closer to a buy, but his average means his owner will want a great piece (and rightly so).
ADD – SHANE BIGGS (D) – Yes, he’s on bye, but Murphy is out for a month, so if you can cover this week’s donut, he’s worth an add. Does score well when in the side.
SELL – CAM PEDERSEN (F) – We love you, Cam. You saved our butts for a while. But the getting’s good now before Max returns. I actually expect Cam to stay in the team, and I’m even more hopeful he scores ok for a couple of weeks before he returns and the person I traded him to feels good about the deal.
DROP – MASON WOOD (F) – Owned at a high clip, don’t see much point keeping him over the byes with Waite and Brown in the team, scoring is capped for mine.
BUY – JASPER PITTARD (D) – A lot was made (at the time) of Pittard’s game on Thursday night, given his low possession tally and fantasy score. Sometimes, people, things don’t go your way as a player. I believe in Pittard as a good fantasy option and feel like this week’s game has opened up a good buy opportunity. No games off over the main bye weeks and potential for banger games make Pittard a defender I’m targeting.
SELL – MICHAEL WALTERS (F) – Was a nice pickup while it lasted, if you shipped him last week, kudos, but this week it’s definitely time to go. The midfield is back, and yes, it seems counter intuitive to pull Walters out of there, but this is Ross the Boss. He hates your fantasy team like I hate the pumpkin bread that Mrs Fizz bought for us this week. Bloody awful stuff. Anyways, sell high while you can.
ADD – MARK BAGULEY (D) – Good plug and play option this week, against GWS who have had defenders score on them nicely. Bags has been in reasonable touch of late also, so look for a 75+ score here.
SELL – NICK RIEWOLDT (F) – Look, when he plays, he’ll probably score well. But the concern is when does he play and when does he rest. Obviously a sell in keeper league, even in redraft he’s a concern as you don’t know how long he’ll be out for, or if he’ll need another rest during your fantasy finals. That’s not someone you should be buying. Due to name value and yes, when he plays he scores, he should be able to fetch a pretty penny.
Good trading and of course, good luck in your matchups this week!