A DOZEN DEALS – ROUND 14
Each week I’ll be bringing you my thoughts on which players to BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD and DROP in AFL Draft Leagues. The moves are based on a 10 team redraft league with 22 players per team, so if your league is shallower, deeper or keeper, use your best judgement as to what moves apply. Remember no-one HAS to trade with you, but the least you can do is make offers to try improve your team. Also consider your league set up and team structure before making a move. This is a list about value and treating your team as something that is constantly evolving to try get it as solid as it can be. As I always say, “if you ain’t trading, you ain’t trying!” You can hear the rest of my thoughts each week as part of the Draft Doctors Podcast released each Monday.
Well, well, well – I’m back. Very refreshed after my visit to the city of churches where I used up my data allowance quicker than Essendon can lose a lead. Anyways, it was a crazy round, no doubt some of you will have had Jelwood and Beams captain to much chagrin, or even the most under-rated superstar Dayne Zorko who dished up a delicious bag of bugger all. Anyways, as always there’s some ripe old opportunities going around.
Of course, every league is different, and we know some are starting fantasy finals as of this week. Please consider your league settings and finals schedule when deciding on deals.
BUY – DAYNE BEAMS (M) – Obvious, straight off the bat. If you’re locked up in your fantasy finals and they don’t start for a month, go throw an offer at the Beams owner. Beams was flipped for Libba in my home league (not a keeper), so there are some pretty sweet deals to be had. Beams’ injury history does terrify me slightly, but I think it’s a nice aggressive move that could really pay off.
ADD – ANDREW SWALLOW (M) – Owned below our 65% threshold on Ultimate,. Swallow is a decent plug and play option this week, given North’s best extractor (Cunnington) is out suspended. Someone has to win the pill and Swallow was okay last week and is also playing for his future. Love the narrative there. Jump on.
ADD – TOM LANGDON (D) – Only owned in 45% of Ultimate leagues, Langdon scored nicely in his second game back for the Pies. He had a ripping first couple of fantasy seasons for a defender, and his intercept game and good ball use should keep him in the team. Definite upside.
DROP – SHANE EDWARDS (F/M) – It’s never really happened for Edwards, occassional stints through the midfield aside, and it’s worse this season. An improved Tigers midfield and a lower possession game style has burnt Edwards’ scoring output. Find a better option.
SELL – NICK RIEWOLDT (F) – I always hate writing up players that I own as sells, but Riewoldt is a prime sell candidate. Has actually scored okay since returning, but looks horrible and has to be a chance to be rested at any stage, which scares the hell out of me leading into a finals campaign. Isn’t running up and down the wings like last season, mired in the forward line of an average team so the scoring outlook seems rather sub-premo.
BUY – HANDSOME TOM LYNCH (F) – The big guy’s had a couple of shockers, but let’s look at the circumstances surrounding those games. Last week – no Ablett and on the road. The week before – wet. His other poor scores were in a 100 point loss and a 12 goal loss in China. Handsome Tom is a legit star who went early on draft day for a reason. He’s at an incredibly low value point and someone I’m absolutely throwing trade offers out on. The only danger is if you believe Ablett continues to miss and the Suns struggle moving the ball effectively.
ADD – RYAN BASTINAC (M) – Could just as easily write in Rhys Mathieson, who potentially has more upside, but the safer pick of the two feels like Bastinac to me. Hasn’t really shone on a consistent basis since switching from the Roos, Bastinac is starting to put together a quality little patch of form, finding the footy, laying some tackles and hitting the scoreboard. There are certainly midfield rotations to be had at Brisbane, expect an 85 floor and nice cover for your mids.
SELL – TODD GOLDSTEIN ( R ) – One for the Dream Teamers more than SC. Good luck in selling a ruck this season, yet maybe the #brand power of Goldy will fetch you an offer. Goldstein’s form is clearly waning as he isn’t the dominant player of yesteryear with only 2 DT tons for the whole season. Preuss is looming, Daw is in (for now) and the Roos are clearly missing the finals. It’s hard to project what the North ruck setup will look like from here on, either way I’d be looking for a deal with Goldy.
BUY – CHRISTIAN PETRACCA (F) – Think Petracca is a great buy option. Melbourne get their gun ruckman back. Melbourne are about to get their gun forward back. Melbourne have lost arguably their best midfielder. If I was a damaging half forward, that means I’m in a better side, with less defensive pressure and potentially more midfield rotations. His average is kind of buried a little bit so he should be affordable. If you play finals in rounds 21-23, there’s some tantalising matchups for the Demons as well.
HOLD – BERNIE VINCE (D/M) – If you’ve held on to Bernie all season, well, good news – he’s playable! Nathan Jones injury has opened up more midfield time, as well as Salem’s injury with opens up some possessions to be had. Don’t think he’s a buy as The Jones and Salem will be back just prior or during finals and don’t know that you’ll be able to get much for him in a trade. Just enjoy the non-horrendous scores for a few weeks and snag some wins.
SELL – TOM LIBERATORE (M) – If you can get anything for him. Too much time forward, too many other mids, not a transition player. Wouldn’t be shocked if he got dropped again. Probably give him a mulligan on 2017 and see how he comes back but yeesh, even in a keeper, I dunno. Does he even play over a fit Dunkley? Is a pure clearance mid, Bevo seems intent on this flexibility crap though.
SELL – DYSON HEPPELL (M) – Okay, so if we’re looking to upgrade, I think Heppell is a reasonable guy to try do it with. Only half his SC scores are 100+ and he’s gone at a worse rate in DT. A worrying trend is how often he starts a game hot and slows down after half time. Doesn’t pad his numbers with goals or a high tackle count and clearly isn’t the major ball winner in his team. If you’re trying to get quality, sometimes you have to give a bit of quality to get there. I will say Essendon’s fantasy finals draw round 19 onwards is pretty favourable, so if you want to purely play matchups, hold and have a laugh at me later.
Good luck in your matches and good trading this week!