Okay, so slightly misleading title. I will draft almost any player at the right value, including the ones listed below. However, I know through experience, intuition and using the ADPs from www.mock.thedraftdoctors.com.au that I won’t be in the frame to draft any of these players, despite having one of them ranked at the top of their position group! It simply comes down to value and the fact that I am willing to overlook these guys for one reason or another and go in a different direction. When I’m spending a high equity draft pick, I need to be comfortable in my decision. With these players, I’m just down on their outlook for fantasy in 2018. Not that they’re bad players by any stretch, they’re all guns – and that’s part of the problem.
As soon as Jake Lever was traded to Melbourne, I felt Tom MacDonald was going to be playing as a forward more often than not in 2018. He played there in 2017 with success and with the fantastic intercepting Lever joining the club, the move made sense. However, as we know, key forwards score sporadically, especially when you’re not the number one show in town. Expect MacDonald to be drafted off his 2017 average and to not return that value. He will no doubt have his up weeks, but expect more down weeks than when he was in defence.
Okay, so we might be entering Hot Take City here, mostly because everyone loves Luke Dahlhaus. And why not? He’s been one of the top performing forwards over the last few years for fantasy. That is, until the second half of last year, when he was shifted back to the forward line to help create goals for the Doggies. Toby McLean was shifted into the midfield, sucking up Dahlhaus’ scoring. When we look to Dahl’s scoring past, the 2015 season sticks out as the high point outlier. In 2015, the Dogs midfield changed. Ryan Griffen had bolted to GWS. Tom Liberatore was out with an ACL Matty Boyd had been shifted to half back. There was a need for midfielders. A second year gun called The Bont stood up. A role player called Liam Picken went into the midfield and averaged a ton. And a pressure forward called Luke Dahlhaus went in there and brained it. But the troops have deepened in the midfield with Bont, Macrae, Libba, McLean, Wallis, Dale, Hunter and more. Goals are an issue for the Dogs and with Stringer leaving, my money is on Dahlhaus playing forward. I’m not saying he won’t have his matches, but his scoring will be up and down with a lower ceiling than in previous years. This is the one call that I feel could seriously burn me, but I’m ok going out on a ledge here.
Honestly, I’ve talked about the Brodie Grundy/Mason Cox thing for so long I could vomit. But I realise that being the only year round fantasy footy podcast means you’ll have to repeat yourself a few times. So Grundy’s 2017 splits when Cox played were 26 SuperCoach points less than when Cox didn’t, and 20 DT points less. That’s a serious drop off. Grundy’s averages still place him near the top of the 2017 ruck averages because he played without Cox a lot more than he did. And when you factor in the depth of the position, in most league formats it just doesn’t add up to draft a ruck early. Two ruck leagues and leagues with more than 12 members obviously need to consider going earlier on a ruck and there’s certainly better value around than Grundy.
My cohorts on the Draft Doctors podcast have both ranked Dylan Roberton more than ten spots higher than I have, which I can’t get behind. Whilst his 2017 average was good, and he comes in with the tenth best defender average in both AFL Fantasy and SC formats, it’s a tale of two halves for Roberton. Well, more to the point, it’s what personnel does to his role. When Shane Savage was in the team in, Savage was the man the Saints wanted using the ball from the back half. When he was out, they were more likely to use Roberton. The average splits back this up. A DT scoring drop from 100 to 81 points per game and a SC scoring drop from 103 to 83. Alarming. Given he’s only produced one other season which saw a similar scoring average, it’s fair to say we’re looking at an outlier situation. Also this is the first time Roberton has played 22 games in a season. I can’t have him in D1 one range, and to be honest, I’m not super high on him as D2 despite ranking him there. Defender stocks are thin though!
What does a primary school kid and Scott Selwood’s home and away game totals from the last 4 years have in common? They’re yet to hit the teens. My bet is Selwood gets drafted higher than he should on the back of his 100 DT average from 2017. Problem is, he’s already injured (shocked emoji) and that I find his score build from last year to be really unreliable. He averaged a staggering 11.6 tackles per game. Extrapolate that over a season and his total tackles would amount to 255. The previous record over a home and away season is 188. So he was on track to be 3 tackles higher per game than the record, which is simply incredible and I just can’t buy into it. There’s far too much risk of missed games and too much reason he’ll fall back to a 90ish average to make him worth drafting at his average.
Which players are off your radar in 2018? Let us know in the comments!