COLLINGWOOD

FALLEN STAR

 ADAM TRELOAR – MID

A year is a hell of a long time in footy, for this time last year we were all spruiking Treloar as a bonafide first rounder in all fantasy formats.  And he failed, boy, did he fail.  Well, truth be told he didn’t really do anything wrong in DT formats, falling only 3 points from his 111.5 DT average in 2016 to 108.  He did take a huge tumble in SC however, as his clanger count jumped and effective disposal percentage fell around 10% with his average bombing to 101.4 from 111 the year before.  And that effective disposal % isn’t an outlier.  Three seasons before his count was in the mid 60s as well, and we know he had groin surgery following that season before arriving at Collingwood, and there has been suggestions he was battling a similar issue last year.  This would make sense as his counting stats didn’t change a great deal, but how effective he was did, much like Jack Steven and it’s come out Steven was battling hamstring issues.  The big thing that changed for Treloar in DT formats was that players simply outperformed him.  Dusty went bigger than ever before.  As did Titch, Mitch Duncan.  In fact, the amount of players averaging over 110 doubled from 6 to 12.  So whilst there’s a decent amount of stank on Treloar, it really wasn’t all that bad in DT formats.  And this year, you’re getting him in drafts a full round or more later than last year.  That screams value.

TRY A LITTLE BURGER, AKA SLIDER

 JORDAN DE GOEY

So we all know about the fighting, the lying, the drink-driving and he might actually be responsible for JFK’s assassination.  We don’t know.  What we do know is De Goey is coming into draft season carrying the burden of ‘indefinite suspension’.  Indefinite suspensions have a way of being lifted once the team starts losing, which should happen in the first 2 rounds for Collingwood.  So even if De Goey is still banned at the start of the season, I don’t expect it to take too long to get in.  He’s played his 50 games, is fit and in 2017 showed the ceiling fantasy coaches like to see.  The talent is there in spades and I think you’ll be getting De Goey later than you would’ve without the ban.  This isn’t a Harley Bennell calf we’re talking about, this is a top 5 draft pick ready to roll.  Now, whether he can keep it together off the field is another story, but if you’re picking this guy up in round 16, the risk is being mitigated with low draft capital.  Wait in drafts for the potential reward.

RISK/REWARD

 DANIEL WELLS

One player who is sooooooo out of favour with fantasy coaches he isn’t even being mentioned as an AFL player is Daniel Wells.  And I’m not here to tell you he’s going to save your team or being a top ten averaging player at his position.  We all know his injury struggles.  But the guy can flat out score.  In the ten games he managed in 2017, there were 8 he got through unscathed and he averaged 90 DT and 84 SC in them.  Being listed as a forward, that is something draft coaches should take notice of.  I’m not saying to throw a high equity pick at Wells, but he is worthy of consideration when looking for those late round lottery tickets, because scoring isn’t the issue with him.  Which, in a way, is better than someone you’re hoping will score well, because at least if Wells is injured he’s not in your on field lineup as opposed to a Hayden Crozier/Steven Motlop type who may drop a 40 on you.  And hey, if he starts the year well, you can always try ship him off to a desperate leaguemate!pies-logo