Buyer Beware

Gary Ablett: As good a player as Gary Ablett is, I have massive concerns on his ability to play out the year. An absolute fantasy stud in his prime, he is now on the wrong side of 30 and its starting to show. The last 4 years ‘Gaz’ has managed 49 out of a possible 88 games due to injury.

 

Having moved back to Geelong to finish out his career there is an air of excitement about the prodigal son returning home. In fantasy terms it raises a lot of questions. How will Danger, Selwood and Ablett all fit in the midfield and score? How many games will he play? What will be his forward/midfield time split be? Those questions can’t be answered until we see him out on the park which won’t be until round 1 as he has a minor hamstring strain.

 

If I were to draft Ablett, I would be comfortable taking him as my M3, but I would want 2 quality players in front of him to take the risk. On our mock draft website (mock.thedraftdoctors.com.au), Ablett’s ADP in AFL fantasy is 18 and for Supercoach its 15. That means he is going in the 2nd round of people’s drafts. That is a huge risk to take early in your draft for my liking. If that is the case that opens the door for you to get a quality player on another line and get that value

 

Late Value Ruck

Zac Smith: On the Draft Doctors pod we are big advocates for taking a ruck in the middle to later rounds of your draft as there is always a couple who will have a good year and return that value of a pick we are all chasing. That late ruck this year is Zac Smith.

 

In the last 5 rounds in 2017, Zac went it alone in the ruck 4 times and his average rose to 108 in Supercoach and 94 In AFL fantasy. Even with Rhys Stanley in the team, Zac was still able knock out 100’s in both formats as he is one those ruckmen capable of going forward and kicking goals.

 

In JLT 1, Smith spent the first half on the bench but was able to go at a point per minute from his 35% time on ground. Here’s hoping Chris Scott goes with Smith as the sole ruck option so we can all enjoy his late round pick value.

 

Time Too Shine

Jackson Thurlow: There has been a changing of the guard in the defence at Geelong in the last few years with the retirements of Bartel, Mackie, Lonergan and Enright. That means there is a whole bunch of fantasy points up for grabs and some them have Jackson Thurlow’s name on them. About to enter his 6th year of footy, Thurlow missed all of 2016 with an ACL injury. Prior to that he was starting to find his feet in the team while producing some nice fantasy scores. As we know it takes about 2 years to fully recover from an ACL and so we didn’t see all of Thurlow’s potential on show.

 

Enter 2018 and Thurlow will be looking to cement himself in that backline. A clean user of the ball the Cats will be looking to Thurlow’s efficiency to rebound the ball out of defensive 50. Thurlow is one of those players who we know has the talent but just needs a clean run at it. I’m looking at Thurlow as one of those late round lottery picks that returns great value.