A Dozen Deals – 27/3

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One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give advice on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

Early in the season is often a hard time to trade given owners are still very connected to the draft value they invested in a player, so trying to get a round one under-performer (like a Dayne Zorko) may be tougher now than if he has two more games without a ton. Anyway, let’s talk some deals.

SELL – MATTHEW WRIGHT (F) – Ever reliable Matty Wright, never a star but never a let down didn’t disappoint his owners with a mid 80 score in round one. However, that score being on the back of a five-goal performance is what scares me. The fact that Wright didn’t top 90 with such a performance leads me to believe there’s regression coming. Low disposal numbers need a helping hand to build a score (marks, tackles, goals) and we’ve seen goals be an unreliable way to do this. Might be one to package up in a two-for-one.

HOLD – TOM ROCKLIFF (M) – After a limited pre-season and club change, the fantasy coaches who drafted Rocky will no doubt be disappointed in the return. Low TOG and an unfriendly half-forward role contributed to the poor score and it’s reasonably hard to see this turn around in a week or two. If you drafted him, I’m not selling low and if you’re interested in buying I’d certainly wait a week (and probably two). However, the question might need to be asked – after coming from a team which such a void of fantasy scoring talent at the bottom end, can he still be a ‘pig’ in a very even and fantasy capable 22?

ADD – AARON YOUNG (F) – Has always had fantasy relevance in the past, but moving to Gold Coast may unleash his potential. At Port, he was always in a situation where he played a low (usually mid 60%) TOG. In Young’s first game with the Suns, he clocked 81%. That’s a significant leap for someone who’s more than capable of racking up disposals, tackles and goals. Is absolutely worth taking a chance on, and if these trends continue…..EYYYYY!

ADD – DARCY BYRNE-JONES (D) – A running defender who can win his own ball. Only owned in 62% of UF teams (at time of writing), DBJ pumped out a mid 80 score in round one and looks to be secure in his role with a couple of injuries to similar type players. Expect reasonable scores for the time being, even if Riley Bonner is the new hotness in the Port half back line.

BUY – HANDSOME TOM LYNCH (F) – Basically the reverse of Matt Wright. Lynch somehow managed to score 70 DT and 77 SC in a monsoon, without kicking a goal and giving away 6 FREE KICKS! That’s incredible. 18 DT points given away for free by a key forward in those conditions and still didn’t give you a terrible score. I’m still a bit hesitant of paying up for Handsome Tom given the away form and the Suns’ schedule, but you might be able to nab the star on the cheap.

ADD – JADE GRESHAM/TIM MEMBREY (F) – Both players are lowly owned, both players come up against North Melbourne, the longest priced outsider for the week and favourite for the wooden spoon. Both players had success against North last year and have started 2018 well with 5 goals between them. Also, we must consider the conditions North played in last week. A trying contest in the wet, lots of body contact and tackles, if they came out flat and had a score put up on them, it wouldn’t shock.

ADD – MITCH WALLIS (M/F) – Still has a mid 80% ownership on UF, but I’d be checking for him once your waivers clear in case he’s dropped. With Libba out for the year now and Picken already missing, there’s a role going for someone who can do the inside work at the Bulldogs, Wallis’ speciality. Usually a good scorer when he plays, it’s just a case of him getting a game and you’ll be good to go.

DROP – JOSH SMITH (D) – Injured and looks to have had his free-wheeling licence fully revoked like we saw at times last year. With Sam Murray now the dasher off half-back, Smith is a safe cut in all but the very deepest of leagues.

HOLD – NIC NAITANUI (r) – Impressive return and scored very handily, especially considering his low TOG. If you grabbed NicNat late and have ruck cover, you might be looking to cash in – especially with Ryder going down there’s a market for a ruck. If you can hold off one week you may see NicNat’s value increase, as he will likely rack up all the hitouts this week, as he jumps over whatever stepladder the Bulldogs pretend is a ruckman this week.

ADD – JAMES HARMES (M/F) – Only owned in 56% of leagues, Harmes put out 77 DT and 79 SC in only 66% game time. It’s fair to say that’s quite efficient, so he’s obviously in good touch. With no Viney and Salem struggling in the middle, he’s winning some pill when he’s rotating through the midfield and laying some tackles. And we know he can hit the scoreboard. With matchups against Brisbane and North Melbourne over the next two weeks, Harmes could loom as a savvy add.

DROP – HARRY TAYLOR (D/F) – Foot problems are something I can’t have anything to do with. They linger, they often require multiple surgeries and take rest to recover. Taylor is a replaceable player now with foot problems. Plantar fascia problems are slow healers, but ones you can play through, albeit not particularly effectively. I’d bail.

As always, good trading and good luck in your matchups!

5 comments on “A Dozen Deals – 27/3”

  1. Thoughts on targeting The Bont or similar type mid?
    I am needing another 100+ mid and can afford to offer up Sicily and bring Clarke or Biggs onto the ground and slot Bont in the middle instead of having Fiorini, Tyson or Atkins as my last mid spot.
    So basically trade Sicily for 100 or so mid??
    5-7-1-5-4-5 league of 10 teams.
    Cheers

    1. So essentially play Fiorini and Sicily or Bont and Clarke? Would much rather Fiorini and Sic. If you really want that mid however, people will pay for Sicily so yeah, targeting a Bont/Zorko/Adams would make sense.

    1. More upside, but still a couple mids to come in for Geelong so if he hits a rough patch might be on the outer. Still, looked good so if it’s a bench spot I’m okay shooting for that upside.

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