A Dozen Deals 3/4

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One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give advice on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

I often say ‘your best ability is your availability’, and we’re starting to see why. If you drafted an injured player like a JJK, Hanley, etc, you probably thought the value was there. But you might have gotten unlucky and started having a couple more injuries or an early round under performer and things are compounding. Couple that with limiting your bench spots because you have to hold an injured player instead of taking a flier on a Jeremy Finlayson for example, and it can be frustrating indeed. Something to think about during draft season next year.

BUY – TAYLOR ADAMS (M) – Mentioned on the podcast, Adams is just a little down at the moment. Still playing midfield, still tackling, he’s just getting a little less transition ball and disposals in general, plus his usually fine kick to handball ratio has slipped dramatically the wrong way. Given we’ve got a few years of data to back up his scoring, it’s fair to say Adams is a very good mid who should bounce back, but is cheaper to attain than his draft day cost. Worth kicking the tyres on.

ADD – CAM ELLIS-YOLMEN (M) – As of writing this, still only owned in 57% of leagues on Ultimate Footy. Gets his chance at a bigger role with Matt Crouch out for a few weeks, expect him to score well in the midfield. Over 30 pressure acts in the match against Richmond will no doubt please the coach greatly.

ADD – HUGH GREENWOOD (M) – Ditto Greenwood, except more valuable for SuperCoach.

BUY – BRANDON ELLIS (D) – Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?! Brandon Ellis sucks, Steve. Yeah, well, he’s also one of the more durable players going and aside from his rookie season he’s never averaged less than 18 touches a game and 5.5 marks. So to be down 4 marks and a couple of possessions is very different. And yes, he’s had a role change from his days on the wing. But Richmond have played 2 high pressure games and are averaging 24 less marks per game than 2017 (and they were a low marking team anyway). I expect that to correct itself and for the team to get a little more fantasy friendly. After their round 3 game their schedule opens up a bit and I expect Ellis to get back on track from a fantasy perspective. Since his perceived value is low, you should be starting your offers out down there. He may even hit the free agency pool in leagues. Now, let’s hope he doesn’t get dropped this week!

ADD – JEREMY FINLAYSON (D) – Go pick up this 41% owned defender now. Kick ins, intercepts and a great kick to handball ratio in a good team. What else could you want?

SELL – NIC NAITANUI ( R ) – Okay, so specific here – you’re one of the people who drafted 2 rucks. Your other ruck worked out and is fine. I’m talking Witts, Jacobs, Gawn, Sandi, whatever. Now, maybe you want some insurance, but I’m here to cash in. The Eagles have just faced two of the most piss-poor ruck divisions on the planet. NicNat’s TOG is being kept low (and fair enough!) so I find it hard to believe his scoring maintains against better rucks without an increase in TOG. I’m pairing him with a lower forward, back or mid and trying to upgrade with someone who needs a ruck. And other food for thought – (health permitting) the Eagles face a murderer’s row of rucks in the fantasy finals. Goldy, Ryder, Sandi, Gawn and Stef (although he’ll jump all over Stef). I mean, they’re tough matchups. Just to reiterate – very specific circumstances.

DROP – JAKE STRINGER (F) – If you bought the preseason hype, move on. Never had a fantasy friendly game, that hasn’t changed with a new jumper.

ADD – JACOB HOPPER (M) – With Scully now missing 3 months, grab Hopper who is returning after some time injured. Can play, and may play a half forward style role so an outside chance of DPP. Looking a ways ahead there but I’m a fan. Low ownership, definite stash potential.

ADD – JAMES HARMES (M/F) – In some ways he’s my new Matt Wright. Usually under that 65% ownership, never scores huge but rarely lets you down. Has a nice score build through disposals, marks, tackles and goals. Gets mid rotations and has a matchup against North this week. We’re waiting to see if that’s a good or bad thing, but it feels good at least.

SELL – MICHAEL HIBBERD (D) – If you can find some comparable value to what you drafted him with, do it. Lost kick ins, isn’t intercepting anything and the scores are sinking. Everything’s down on 2017, but Hibberd’s disposals have traditionally been in the low 20s as oppose to last year’s 27 average. If you can’t find good value maybe you hold. I’d imagine you could find a buyer though.

ADD/BUY – ANGUS BRAYSHAW (D/M) – I’d expect Brayshaw to get the call up this week. Christian Salem’s had 2 stinkers in a row and his game time dropped by almost 10%. That feels like a change could be coming. Brayshaw cut it up in the seconds match apparently, so look for him to earn a recall.

ADD – SC OR KEEPERS ONLY! – I want a piece of Port against Brisbane this week, but unfortunately for this article basically all of Port are owned except for……………TODD MARSHALL (F). Now, your FA pool may have a Sam Gray or Donuts Motlop to grab, and that’s fine. But if you’re in a SC league or a keeper league or hell, a keeper SC league – I like the idea of Marshall who just dropped a 93 SC on Sydney in limited TOG. In fact, this guy is scoring at a reasonable PPM clip for a second year big man. I think it’s fair to say Port are set up to be good for the next couple of seasons, and that maybe Justin Westhoff retires as well. Marshall ain’t losing his F status and has a chance to develop in a potent team. Oh yeah, he’s 3% owned. If you’re rebuilding, or in a deep league looking for an F this week, maybe check him out. Forwards are scoring well versus Brisbane, I forgot to add:)

By the way, if you read this article last year, guess who’s under 65% ownership this week?
Hahahaha MULLETT TIME! And plays the Pies so this is last year’s gravy matchup!

10 comments on “A Dozen Deals 3/4”

    1. Not even Sherlock Holmes can get to the bottom of it, but whilst they’re winning and guys are playing their role, might just be on outside looking in.

    1. Probably not, with MacMillan picking up some kick ins and some of Mullet’s points from last year. AM is a good play for this week though.

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