Dozen Deals 17/4

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One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give advice on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

SELL – THE CHAD (F) – Wingard seems to have this weird thing where he has a great average/crap average alternating years. We’re in a down year and it looks like he might nosedive from last year’s average. He got a good run through the midfield last year and had some absolute bangers. This year, with Robbie Gray fit and the additions to the Power team, Wingard’s midfield time has dried up and is mostly planted inside 50. He’ll no doubt have his games where the Power blow teams out of the water and he scores big, but the consistency won’t be there. Still a big name, he may command a decent return at the trade table.

ADD – MATT KENNEDY (M) – Only owned in half of UF leagues, this guy is a must grab in all but shallow leagues. First round talent, moved to a new club and guaranteed mid time. Injured in round one, he’s had a couple of games back and is finding his feet. With Murphy potentially out, there’s possessions galore up for grabs in the Carlton midfield. Even if you just stash him on your pine, I’m curious to see how this shakes out.

ADD – REECE CONCA (D) – Back to back 24+ disposal games can’t be ignored. Playing a mix of wing and defence and maybe, just maybe, the former first rounder can string some games together. Lowly owned, defender status, he ain’t costing you much to grab off the waiver wire and see how it shakes out. Stranger things have happened.

BUY – JPK (M) – Okay, so a big name you can buy. Terrible score on the weekend, the Dogs are JPK’s worst opponent for fantasy over his career. He’s also a notorious slow starter. I’m not going to say he’ll kill the next month, but after round 8 the Swans draw really opens up. That’s also when JPK’s fantasy scoring usually kicks into gear. It’s always hard to get guns, this might be a good chance to take a crack.

ADD – JAMIE CRIPPS (F) – If he’s on your waivers and need a forward for a week, he’s got the plum Carlton matchup. Enjoy.

DROP – PEARCE HANLEY (D) – Google ‘Pearce Hanley shoulder’.

DROP – CYRIL RIOLI (F) – If for some reason you have Rioli, he’s injured and wasn’t doing too much, even in SC.

HOLD – JACK REDDEN (M) – If they weren’t playing Carlton this week, I wouldn’t just want to drop him, I’d want to fire him into the sun. Ah Chee is close to returning, if Redden doesn’t do something soon he may find himself in the magoos.

SELL – BEN BROWN (F) – In a rich vein of form, the big Taswegian got the Carlton bump on the weekend. If it weren’t for the match played in a typhoon in round one, Brown would be averaging around 90 DT and 130 SC. Tell that to the person you’re trying to deal Brown to. Then look at his upcoming schedule and realise that after he plays Hawthorn this week, he has 5 below average key forward matchups in a row. I kind of like this strategy when trading as if he scores well against Hawthorn, the person you’re selling him to will think they’ve gotten one over on you and will probably be easy to deal with in the future. Now of course, Brown could be a transcendent player who’s matchup proof but I’ll go with the numbers and suggest now is a great time to sell high.

SELL – BRAD EBERT (M) – Second Port sell, strange! But Ebert has become a role player. I actually thought preseason he’d be pushed back out to the wing, but with Polec, Motlop and co going okay on the outside, Ebert’s getting less of the ball than ever. Still great tackling numbers, he’ll no doubt have some big games, but it seems like the consistency may have bolted. May have to two for one this one.

ADD – JACOB HOPPER (M) – Still floating about in leagues, if he’s in the pool in yours – give your league’s head a collective shake and get him in. Might not have the highest ceiling in the world given he’s usually a victim of low TOG, but has upside and is in a winning team.

BUY – GOOD PERSONALITY TOM LYNCH (F) – The Crows one for our newer mates! Missed a couple of games with injury, was barely sighted in the Collingwood beatdown and now Adelaide has Sydney on deck! Aaargh! So, I’m not saying play him this week if you do deal, but it’s probably a good time to deal with a couple of crap scores, rumours of injury, a bad upcoming matchup and the Crows copping some media heat.  Lynch is a pretty consistent scorer and after the Sydney matchup has GC on a 6 day break on 6 weeks of travel followed by the mother lode matchup – Carlton. And hopefully by then Matt Crouch is back and the Crows get back on track.

Of course, good trading and good luck in your matchups this week!

14 comments on “Dozen Deals 17/4”

  1. I have Redden.

    Kennedy and Hopper are both Free Agents in my 12 Team, 22 Player SuperCoach League.

    Hold Redden or pick up Kennedy or Hopper?

    1. Well, like I mentioned, I think if Redden’s a chance to go well, but I’d rather the upside of one of the younger guys. How can you even play Redden at this point?

  2. Short on mids (Blakely and CEY as final 2 of 5 on field) and have lots of fwds, (Walters, Lynch, Lobb, Roughy, Parish)

    How do you feel about Hannebery for Personality Lynch?

    1. Yeah, you’re getting Hanners at presumably his lowest point. Don’t think he gets back to the averages he posted 2-3 years ago but it’s a reasonable deal.

  3. What’s a fair trade for Petracca. I’m in a keeper league, 10 Team, 22 players. Not sure what to offer. The team that has Petracca is in need of a mid. I want to make an offer that’s not to ridiculous. Like Goddard & Darling for Petracca.

    1. In a keeper, you’re going to have to pony up to get a premium young forward moving to the mids like Petracca. If you could swing Goddard and Darling I think you’d be doing well. Goddard coming to the end, Darling is scoring well at the moment, def a good time to sell high. Tough to say without knowing your league but you’d probably have to give up 2 good older players or a comparable young mid, say a Bont type. Goddard and Darling might at least be a starting point for you, but it will likely cost more.

  4. Thoughts on Tim English? Do we expect him to continue scoring this highly with Roughead and Trengove looming as likely ins back into the team? The reason I ask is I’ve had a few mention his name as steak knives in potential bigger deals. Thinking of selling high for now and nabbing Rowan Marshall off the FA list anyway…

    1. If you’re talking redraft, I’d say now is a handy sell time. Keeper leagues, I’d be holding English.

      1. Nah it’s re-draft, so looking to sell high. Unsure how a 2nd year will continue, with Roughead and Trengove to come back.

  5. I have just traded Lachie Weller for Dylan Shiel.

    Who do you think goes better from here?

    Both seem to be vulnerable to a tag.

      1. Whitfield arguably has the higher ceiling and it looks like that’s where the tag’s going, especially with Kelly out. It wouldn’t shock me if they finished similar ave wise but gun to head I’d say Whitfield just because Shiel is usually a victim of low TOG, but I understand the move.

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