A Dozen Deals 29/5

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One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for over 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give opinions on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

I just wanted to say a quick thanks for being patient with the lack of a Dozen Deals article last week. As I explained on the pod, I wasn’t up to writing or appearing on the pod with the #blackdog (which seems an unnecessarily racist term btw) rearing it’s head. One of the things I take a lot of pride in with the #brand is that we’re able to put out a new pod every week, year round. To miss a week was tough, but I’m back, better, healthier and thankful for the fantasy footy community we have and support it provides. Let’s go.

BUY – DUSTIN MARTIN (M) – Down on numbers, Dusty isn’t returning the value he was drafted at, basically not a captain option at this stage and things seem sour. However, between rounds 3 and 8, he wasn’t hitting his usual 85% TOG. That’s returned the last two weeks. Is it possible he was being managed through the early part of the season? Also, Dusty’s tackle numbers (which have never been huge, mind you) have fallen below two a game. Quite amazing for someone playing so much mid time and winning so much contested ball. I would expect some positive regression there, which will help boost his average. I’m certainly looking for a big second half as Richmond look for another premiership.  You’ll never buy Dusty cheaper.

KEEPER ADD – JY SIMPKIN (F) – If you’re rebuilding, add the talented forward from North. Tackles, hits the scoreboard and wins his own ball. These are three traits I look for in players for fantasy. Will be heading into year 3 next year, expect improvement with another preseason.

ADD – BEN AINSWORTH (F) – Getting more midfield time and his scores have pushed up with a couple of 90+ games of late. Already had the bye which is nice. A high draft pick with a high ceiling, if he continues in this role he’s a handy add.

SELL – LACHIE NEALE (M) – In the three games where Michael Walters was out or injured in, Neale went over 119+ in SC. In the seven he’s played with Walters, he’s gotten two tons. Neale’s been #fine, but it seems his ceiling is capped with Walters taking so much ball, and importantly, marks, through the midfield. For the DT players, the only 2 times Neale has gone over 102 this year were when, you guessed it, Walters missed. I’m not saying to give him away, but he’s a great name to pair with a forward who’s about to fall off a cliff (Tim Taranto, I’m looking at you) and upgrade to a genuine stud like Danger.

DROP – BRETT DELEDIO (F) – It’s ovah. Can’t carry him, can’t imagine anyone paying for a bloke out for two months. A sadder sight than when I tried on a flat brim cap.

ADD – NIC NEWMAN (M,D) – Pure mid in some leagues, but may be worth picking up off the free agent pile in case he gets named this week. Been crushing in the NEAFL (as usual), but is getting the Titch/Longmire treatment. Only 60% owned on UF where he’s a defender. Oh yeah, the Swans play the Blues in #primetime, so feel free to make plans to go the cinema on Friday night, or whatever it is that kids do these days.

ADD – TOM PAPLEY (F) – SuperCoach play here, but the Swans are playing Carlton. Paps can play and was drafted coming into the year.

SELL – AARON SANDILANDS ( R ) – Always fun if you can sell a ruck, the big man was groggy after laying a bump on the weekend and may be in line to miss with concussion. Either way, the scarier news is Sean Darcy is nearing a return. I’d wager the big man is in line to either get a rest or even worse, split time in the second half of the year.

ADD – CONNOR MCKENNA (D) – Having a pretty nice year, McKenna has scored nicely the last three weeks and this week runs into a great matchup for defenders in Richmond. Expecting 80+ for the week.

SELL – TIM TARANTO (F,M) – So this is one that hurt not writing up last week. Still, I’d be trying to flip Taranto, or maybe pair him with someone to upgrade somewhere else. Average still looks healthy ATM but Josh Kelly being available really hurts him going forward. Also the fact that Hopper is getting strong mid rotations ahead of him is brutal. Keeper coaches should be holding on with white knuckles though.

BUY – BRYCE GIBBS (M) – As we always say, no-one likes Bryce Gibbs. For fantasy purposes. Cough. But he’s always good without being amazing. Started out the season guns blazing but has cooled off. An attainable M2/3 you’re getting below cost. The hope is the Crows get healthy after the bye and Gibbs can have a premo style second half. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll do his thing which is still fine.

ADD – A WEST COAST FORWARD – F- The Saints have been getting burnt by the mid/forward (JDG, Smith, Caddy) in recent times. I’d be checking the waiver wire if I was in need of a forward and looking for some blue and gold in what should be a smackdown. LeCras, JJK are lower owned than in years past (although over our official threshold) so maybe a little Jamie Cripps/Willie Rioli action is in order. I know Mrs Fizz has always enjoyed a little Willie action. I’ll see myself out.

Good luck in your matchups and good trading!

17 comments on “A Dozen Deals 29/5”

  1. Good one Steve, it’s not easy being open about depression. Love your articles and the pod. Keep up the good work

    1. Wow, like it. Duncan is a stud. Not a huuuge JZ fan but getting Bris twice from here is interesting, especially if you’re in league he’s got forward status.

  2. Once again great reading Steve and thanks for your insights. Curious about the Neale trade. Though understand the reasons. Thoughts on Ainsworth (GC). Is he a better option than Bruest, moving forward. Bruest is on my roster. Cheers.

    1. Cheers, mate. I’d probably hold with Breust, he’s been great and Hawks have some terrific matchups in the 2nd half. There’s so many usable forwards.

  3. Hi Steve,

    Looking at trading Ward (Keeper) for Dusty (non-keeper). What do you reckon on this?
    TIA

    1. Ok, so reading this that you’re able to keep Ward but not keep Dusty going into next year, I’ll assume this is a league rule. You’d want to be pretty epicly placed to win the flag, personally I wouldn’t do it as the keeper asset is still strong.

  4. As you mentioned lots of useable forwards weekly.

    Currently running with
    Buddy, Mitch Rob, Breust, JJK and Tim Smith with the latter 2 as the ‘useable’

    Just wondering if Wingard, Handsome Tom and even Impey are more useful/keepable on top of having better byes

    1. Handsome Tom is really interesting because of who he plays in and around fantasy finals, a couple of really nice matchups, just worried about GC’s scoring ability – only topped 80 once. Impey I’m not keen on outside of a great matchup. Only one SC and 0 DT tons in career. Not much of a ceiling. Wingard, maybe but playing perma forward is going to limit his consistency and maybe his bigger games will be tough to predict.

  5. Love the Casting of the Pods.

    I’ve been offered Brayshaw as a trade in, for Rocky.

    My midfield is good but defence is light.

    Thanks

    1. Don’t mind it on the surface but both of these players have an enormous range of outcomes. Role and health are the primary two. If you’re taking bench points and converting them to onfield upgrades, go for it. I’m not going to say ‘you have to’ one way or another because there’s so much risk attached to either side. If I was trading Rocky and looking for a defender, I’d shop around though – a lot of people love Rocky.

      1. Cheers. I got Rocky very late in Draft and had him on field early for both his aweful scores. You are right, there is plenty of love for him, might see what other defender I can get.

  6. Who wins in the trade in afl fantasy draft.
    Caddy and D. Swallow(or Wines) for D. Martin and Gunston.
    Thanks.

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