A Dozen Deals 12/6

4 comments

One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give opinions on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

The byes are an interesting time, and part of the reason I’m a staunch believer in leagues playing them is that there is so much player movement – and player movement is fun! Trades, adds, drops, all whilst coaches are scrambling for wins to make finals or avoid the spoon. We’ve had a blockbuster in my home league this morning with Dusty, Zerrett, Caddy, De Goey and Angus Brayshaw changing hands in a trade, and Nat Fyfe is on the trading block! Wow! The DM’s between coaches are going into overdrive. Let’s look at some moves.

ADD – BLAKE HARDWICK (D) – I’m an unashamed Hardwick fan and feel he’s criminally underowned. He’s basically available everywhere and has been scoring at a decent rate. He’s had his bye and faces the Crows this week, who just bled points to the Fremantle defenders. Also faces Gold Coast the week after – good cover for a couple of weeks.

ADD – ADAM CERRA (M/F) – Position status obviously league dependent, but I think he’s a reasonable speculative add in redraft leagues and a must add for keepers. I like following the contested ball winners and Cerra certainly won his share and had a banger in round 12, en route to a fantasy ton. Fyfe returns but Walters is out and potentially might spend more time forward in coming weeks, so if Cerra keeps some form up, could be a great find getting plenty of mid time. Has Carlton on deck this week, so there’s every chance he stays hot.

BUY – JARRAD LYONS (M) – Wrote it up last week, the sentiment remains. Gold Coast were beaten up in contested ball, losing the count by 50. The Lyons owner in your league mightn’t be across the fact he blew it up in the NEAFL on the weekend. Expect changes at the Gold Coast.

ADD – STEVE MOTLOP (M/F) – Worth a pickup with Port playing the Bulldogs who bleed marks to the opposition. Motlop is a smart player who can find space. If you’re struggling for a forward, I like his odds of hitting 80.

BUY – LUKE SHUEY (M) – Ready to return from injury, his average is marred by the score where he went down early in the piece. Bye’s passed for the Eagles and has some good matchups moving forward. The only scary part may be the North/Jacobs rd 19 matchup if that’s a final for you. You kind of know what you’re going to get with Shuey, he’s a good M4, but you might be able to snap him up at a good discount on that.

SELL – MAV WELLER (M/F) – More of a DT move as I’d find it hard to believe he’s owned in SC leagues, Weller is the definition of a JAG (Just A Guy). I’d expect changes at the Saints after their dismal showing in round 12 and Weller would be on the block.

ADD – JAKE STRINGER (F) – His last month has been pretty legit, finding the pill, laying tackles and kicking goals. His scoring history scares but he’s getting more play through the midfield, even picking up 5 centre clearances in round 11. Essendon do have the bye this week but there’s something alluring about Stringer’s potential as a fantasy difference maker. Low ownership, is floating around everywhere, so you can pick him up as easy as Jake would pick up a 17 year old.

SELL – MICHAEL WALTERS (F/M) – Spending a bunch more time forward on the weekend, especially with Fyfe out is a huuuuge worry. Much like Chad Wingard, Walters scores great through the middle and is hardly worth rostering when forward. Fremantle aren’t playing finals, there’s good reason to develop the kids through the middle. Also the fact Walters is missing a match with suspension on top of the upcoming bye makes him a good asset to move out, but the role change is terrifying.

DROP – TRENT DUMONT (M) – A midfielder averaging mid-70s isn’t the most valuable commodity floating around, and with North on bye, it makes sense to add someone else. Couple this with the fact that North are developing some talent through the middle of the ground with Jed Anderson, Ahern and Simpkin to compliment the jet Higgins and bull Cunnington and his job security may be an issue going forward.

DROP – BEN RONKE (F) – For some reason is owned in 71% of UF leagues. Sydney’s gravy schedule is over and face West Coast, the bye, Richmond, Geelong and North in the coming month. A bit tougher, one might say – hardly anyone scores well against the bye.

KEEP AN EYE ON – CALEB MARCHBANK (D) – I’m not going to say ADD over the byes, especially when he’ll most likely need some VFL form, but keep an eye on the injury report. Is really low ownership wise, but is someone who could be very fantasy relevant in the second half of the year.

ADD – JAYDEN SHORT (D) – Scored 88, 104 and 100 DT over the last 3 weeks and plays Geelong this week, who often have defenders score quite well against them. Flying under the radar at only 66% ownership.

4 comments on “A Dozen Deals 12/6”

    1. Yes need forward options. I’ve let Langdon and Wingard slip thru my hands and a little worried heading into finals with only Buddy and Robbo.

      Holding on to de Boer maybe can finish with an 80+ avg

      1. General options, Port and North have good short term matchups, so maybe Motlop’s floating about, maybe Anderson got dropped, Mason Wood. We’ve banged on about Ben Ainsworth for weeks, he’s a great add, he hasn’t shown up on the injury report so assume he’s clear, Breust may have hit your pool, Cerra if you’re in a league where he’s gotten F status, maybe you can buy low on Blake Acres or Roughie, pick up Stringer. Lotta options in the F’s.

    2. If you’re looking at swapping like for like, I like Hawthorn’s next 7 week stretch, so Gunston might be a straight swap if you’re so inclined. Doesn’t have Walters’ ceiling if Walters plays mid but has a way higher floor. It’s hard to be precise given I don’t know your league settings and what you’re after exactly but Gunston, maybe Travis Boak, maybe Mitch Robinson if you can wait a couple weeks – I know Walters is missing as well so it’s kind of a wash there, might be a hard sell.

      Maybe try a 1 for 2 or 2 for 2 or something like that, get a cheaper guy like a Jarryd Roughead and something, Billings and something, etc.

      Hope that helps.

Leave a Reply