Last week I wrote up my Mid-Year All-Australian Fantasy Draft team – this week I thought I’d take a different tact. The All-Australian Fantasy Draft BUST team! The players who have failed to return value on where they were drafted, the ones who never got the #midfield time, the ones we flat out got wrong. I’ve tried to keep injuries out of it, as injuries are often unpredictable, although some appear injury prone it’s often just bad luck.
I’ve tried to make the selected players ones who are relevant in both SC and DT formats and I’ve also selected the team in a 5-7-1-5 format.
Michael Hibberd – ADP 43 – If you drafted Hibberd early on the back of his brilliant 2017 season, you’ll be no doubt reaching for the vomit bucket. Down 21 DT and 24 SC points per game, he’s basically poolable at this stage. The big variable will be Jake Lever’s injury opens up opportunity for Hibberd to score better, it’s just so hard to see at this stage. Would imagine a turnaround is more likely in SC than DT if it were to happen.
Brandon Ellis – ADP 80 – The fact Ellis was dropped by the Tigers after playing every home and away game over the previous four seasons tells you all you need to know. His DT average has plunged 13 ppg to 71 and his SC average has dipped a massive 26 ppg to 65. All these numbers include the 3 games since he’s been recalled where the scores have gotten back on track somewhat. At least the recent form gives owners some hope he can find some form through the second half of the season and get back to being a reliable fantasy asset.
Ryan Burton – ADP 83 – Like Ellis, was dropped by his team, before being recalled. A revelation in 2017, the defender hasn’t hit the same heights for fantasy this season. It’s easy to point the finger and suggest the departure of Luke Hodge has hurt – Burton hasn’t been running off with the same impunity and has been playing his opponent a lot tighter this season. As a result his average is down 26 DT and 24 SC points per game and was ending up on a lot of waiver wires. With better scores in his last 2 games and having cleared his bye round, Burton is someone coaches should be interested in picking up from their FA pool and taking a chance on.
Bachar Houli – ADP 62 – Usually safe as houses, Houli has missed a couple of games with injury but was uncharacteristically down to start 2018. His averages are down a lot, and even if we remove the match he was injured in, his DT average is down 10 ppg and in SC he’s down 17 ppg. These are significant numbers, meaning Houli really isn’t returning value. Can he turn it around? I wouldn’t say no, but given Richmond’s low possession game plan, it’s hard to pin point how and why it will rebound.
Daniel Rich – I’ll ignore UF’s ADP here since he’s really specific to the SC format, but I was drinking the Rich Kool-Aid in the pre-season. Hodge in, building off a great 2017 where he averaged a very handy 91 ppg, was taking intercepts and the tags had starting going to Zorko – it looked a great pick. Unfortunately, as well as missing games, Rich’s average has dropped 22 SC ppg to 69 (nice). I actually think there’s a reasonable chance he can turn it around in the second half, a lot of his scoring hasn’t been horrendous and does contain an injury affected match.
Dan Hannebery – ADP 49 – When your average is down by more the 30 ppg in both formats, it’s fair to say your one of the bigger busts going around. Humble brag, but we actually had Hanners ranked in the 50s for mids so this isn’t a shock, but a lot of coaches have been stung. No preseason, can’t find the pill, horrible role – actually was getting some play through the middle against the Saints and still couldn’t score in a beatdown – spells disaster. The fact the Swans have just had a dream run of matchups and Hanners didn’t score is terrifying.
Dustin Martin – ADP 7 – The reigning Brownlow medallist is crippling fantasy coaches with his output this year. Drafted to be a weekly captain, Martin is a weekly disappointment averaging 25 DT ppg and 14 SC points less this season than in 2017. Is The Statesman’s Brownlow hangover in effect here? It certainly looks like it, with disposals, tackles and marks all coming in at near career lows. The fact a pure mid is averaging less than 2 tackles a game is startling. Can he turn it around? History would say so, but in the Richmond low-possession game, is that enough?
Tom Rockliff – ADP 25 – One of the most prolific fantasy scorers in recent years comes with the buyer beware warning each preseason – will miss matches. And miss matches he has, but the scoring has tanked further than even the biggest sceptics would’ve imagined. Averaging just 78 DT and 71 SC ppg is a far cry from the heady 130+ average of 2014. He did spend enough time forward early in the year to warrant the F addition in AFL Fantasy. There are signs he’s returning to relevance with some good recent scoring, improved tackling, a midfield role and a nice upcoming draw for Port Adelaide. The owners who stuck fat may be rewarded yet.
Zach Merrett – ADP 8 – We were warned. The second half splits from 2017, Monty told us. The tag, he said. We guffawed and poo-pooed. Two years of averaging 117! Ha! Well, halfway through and that 117 DT average has been replaced by a 90 average. The SC fall is 109 to 89. Now, both those scores have an injury affected round 1 in there. In fact, over the last eight matches, Zerrett is averaging over 100 in both formats, but nowhere near 110. He’s certainly not returning value on his first round pick. The scary part for owners is that whilst he’s been okay lately, in the first 5 weeks after Essendon’s bye, he faces North, Freo and Gold Coast – all teams with a tagger capable of shutting down a player like Zerrett and coaches willing to let that happen.
Taylor Adams – ADP 10 – Being taken in the top 10 means you’re a lock. Safe as houses. After a cracking second half to 2017, Adams hasn’t produced the same numbers in 2018 and has missed time with injury (remember when he was injury prone?). The fantasy numbers read like a nightmare for those who took the punt – a 28 ppg DT slide down to 86 and a 21 pgg SC slide down to, yup, 86. His form has been better lately, averaging almost 100 over the last 5 – a far cry from last year. With the emergence of Tom Phillips and Jordan De Goey and Sidebottom playing more inside, will Adams continue to have his fantsy score suppressed? I’ve tried to trade for him at various times throughout the first half of the year, I think he can, but it’s not a guarantee.
Aaron Hall – ADP 58 – Aaron Hall kills it without Gary Ablett, remember? Yeah. And coaches liked the gamble of getting Hall in round 6. And that looked like the worst pick going when Hall stunk up the first month of the season before getting dropped, only to rise from the dead like Lazarus. A role change to become a damaging half back and Hall knocked out a couple of tons before a pec injury (pretty well) ended his season. A double get stuffed to coaches who drafted him.
Shaun Grigg – ADP 112 – Good ol’ safe Shaun Grigg. We all know what we’re getting, every year. Except this year. Has missed 2 games and seen his DT average plunge 20 points to 74 ppg and his SC average drop 13 to 75 ppg. Has become tough to even roster and was never an upside pick at the draft. His one asset was high floor, which has been booted out the door. Not sure it turns around either.
Sam Jacobs – ADP 35 – “Good ol’ safe Sam Jacobs. I’ll draft him at the end of the ruck run and be sweet without losing too many points.” Except this year, you’re screwed. Has dropped almost 20 ppg on average in both formats, to become a brutal 81 DT and 76 SC points per game. Almost droppable. Can he turn it around? I’m not sure. Has looked poor and hasn’t even scored well in plus matchups. Only 1 SC ton for the year is testament to the struggle. If your finals start in round 19, have fun rolling him out against Max Gawn.
Michael Barlow – ADP 68 – Is doing quite well for your NEAFL fantasy team. Also has a broken jaw apparently, so, bad times.
Chad Wingard – ADP 50 – Average is down about 15 ppg in both DT (75 ppg) and SC (77 ppg) formats and was drafted as an F1. That average has been rescued by the last 2 weeks where Wingard has moved back into the midfield and has duly killed it. Was looking shaky for the first couple of months when he was stuck inside 50 doing a whole lotta nothing. Owners can breathe easy, if they haven’t traded!
Handsome Tom – ADP 114 – So Tom has missed some matches but was still drafted in the top half of 22 player leagues, and probably a lot higher in SC leagues. And he’s been unrosterable. Consider he averaged 80 DT and 85 SC last year, he’s currently going at 62 DT and 75 SC. But if we take out his extraordinary performance against Carlton, where he kicked 8 of his 15 goals for the year and scored 139 DT and 180 SC, his averages are 51 DT and 60 SC. This is the biggest FA prize of the upcoming offseason and those are his fantasy numbers. Unrosterable. I mean, when he plays Carlton, go for it though.
Joe Daniher – ADP 88 – Might be a bit rough since allegedly he was playing through injury, but he was out there. And things were doomed for Joe as soon as Jonno declared him his Fantasy BnF. And it didn’t get any better on field as his average slumped to 63 DT down 20 ppg and 56 SC, down a whopping 30 ppg. Injury has kept him out since and hopefully he can get fit and finish off the season well.
Well, that’s four forwards, I’m just trying to think of who I left off……….
Coming up with jack, to be honest…..
Was hoping to find someone with top billing……
Been thinking about it for 15 minutes and I aints got nothing.
Ah well! Sorry.
Hope you have a good weekend and win your matchups, don’t forget you can buy a Draft Doctors tshirt over at https://www.spreesy.com/thedraftdoctors and rep the #brand!