Draft Profile – Carlton Blues

2019 is shaping up to be anyone’s year. Well, almost anyone’s. Another season of playing the kids, developing their list, and a handful of wins awaits the Blues. 2018 was a real low point at Carlton, but you know what they say – ‘there’s no better foundation than rock bottom.’ Or something.

No comments

Every couple of days in the lead up to the AFL season, we will be releasing an article profiling a few key players from each team, and why they should or shouldn’t be considered during your drafts.

2019 is shaping up to be anyone’s year. Well, almost anyone’s. Another season of playing the kids, developing their list, and a handful of wins awaits the Blues. 2018 was a real low point at Carlton, but you know what they say – ‘there’s no better foundation than rock bottom.’ Or something.

There is hope for Carlton fans and fantasy players, in the examples of other clubs. Under Paul Roos, the Demons went from averaging 60 to 90 points per game across 3 seasons, and there were plenty of young players leading the charge. The Blues are aware they haven’t scored over 100 points in some time, and are looking to put some pressure on opposition defences.

Carlton are sick of fresh starts and new beginnings, and they look to be building now. Given how poor they were last year, a small improvement is all we’re looking for. If they can build from their average score of 60 points, and reduce their average losing margin of 40 points, they’ll be back on the track to relevance. Get glasses, Blues fans, it’s time for 2020 vision (sorry).

Not sorry

For those of us in the present, however, we look to see what the Blue Baggers can give us now. With the new Mock Draft Simulator, you can also look at where everyone is picking these players, preparing you for draft day. And the more you run through the mock draft, the more accurate the ADPs get. Leaving you to swoop in on some #value picks.

You don’t need a mock draft to tell you this first guy is a bona fide first rounder though.

Gun

Patrick Cripps

2018 Average:
AFLF  109.3 |  119.4 SC

C’mon. Who else?

Carlton fans could be forgiven if they assumed Sam Docherty’s knee is held together with bubble gum and paddlepop sticks, once again suffering an ACL injury. So the responsibility for doing everything at the blues will rest of the back of Cripps.

Paddy had an injury affected 2017, suffering a cracked jaw and fractured fibula. He didn’t miss a game with the cracked jaw and the fractured fibula was only meant to be a 6 week injury, proving Cripps is a cyborg. He played all 22 games in 2018 and will be looking to build on what was his best season in both fantasy formats.

There’s not a whole lot to really say about Cripps here. Given a lack of soft tissue injuries, you shouldn’t hold any concerns over durability, and with Tom Mitchell out for the season, you could make the case that Cripps will be the top midfielder this season. Overall, I’m giving the edge to Danger (esp in SC) due to forward status, but Cripps is an excellent pick no matter where you’re drafting. Shouldn’t make it past the fifth pick in SC, might drop a couple places in Fantasy.

Mock draft ADP
AFLF  6 | 5  SC

 

Deciding on a top 3 pick

#Value

Nic Newman

2018 Average
AFLF  76.1 |  72.6 SC

26 years old, defender status, great value. 2 seasons under his belt at Sydney, 2017 was both his debut and best season, 18 games with averages of 86 for Fantasy and 82 for SuperCoach, including a 35 disposal 11 mark performance (135 F, 151 SC) in only his fifth game.

Sydney boasts a wealth of veteran talent, however, and Newman struggled to retain a spot in the team. He was in and out of the side, only managing 10 games. Adding to that, he never really had a defined role, being thrown around the ground a bit to cover Sydney’s injuries.

A fresh start at the Blues should wipe the slate. Newman will have great job security and a defined role at Carlton. Newman should be providing support for Kade Simpson off half back, possibly even a bit of run on the wing. His ceiling is great as he’ll have free reign to average 20-25 touches a game. It remains to be seen how the transition from a professional outfit like Sydney to an inexperienced side in Carlton will affect his average.

The risk-reward here is in the medium to high range. I’d be comfortable taking Newman in the middle rounds, a D3 pick with D2 upside. That said, he’s much more popular in fantasy, so you may need to pull the trigger a little earlier. In SC, the safe bet is to try and nab him as a high D4, and be comfortable losing him to someone else reaching.

Mock draft ADP
AFLF  79 | 140  SC

Trying to push an extra round before drafting a smokey

 

Risky Business

Charlie Curnow

2018 Average
AFLF  73.8 |  77.5 SC

I was high on Charlie last season. Koutafides reincarnate. Going to take marks, kick goals, run in the midfield and feed souvlakis to a gorilla. Round 1 he kicked 5 goals and took 10 marks against the reigning premiers. That was quite possibly the worst thing to happen as that was the highest score he would get all year and the only ton he’d score before round 14.

1 minute into season 2018, Curnow snapped a goal, threw up the double python tense, and almost all who drafted him were convinced. Those that weren’t just had to wait for a snap from 40 metres for his third goal to be wooed. Savvy coaches would have sold high in a trade after his first 2 months gave him a decent 85-90 average, but playing draft gives you that extra attachment to your players. It’s not about the buying and selling. Charlie took all who had him for a rollercoaster ride. Dizzying highs with goals and marks, crushing lows with suspensions (and repealing of suspensions) along with the occasional brain fade.

This year, Harry McKay will be a more permanent fixture after 13 games last year, and Mitch McGovern joined the Blues. Carlton will lose. A lot. So it won’t be easy for forwards, and Brendon Bolton says he plans to play all 3 in attack, so watch the JLT carefully to see how Charlie fits in. Just don’t get too caught up in the theatrics. If you want a high energy player at F5 that you’re not relying on, Charlie is your man. Just try not get caught up in the theatrics.

Mock draft ADP
AFLF  151 |  161 SC

Oh what the hell, one more time!

Do Not Draft

Just about anyone else, except veterans like Kade Simpson, Marc Murphy, and Ed Curnow, who can be drafted at face value on their average. There isn’t likely to be a real standout at the Blues, aside from deep leagues or keeper leagues, there’s just not much value to be had. In AFL Fansty, keep an eye on

Carlton are set to lose. A lot. That’s a fantasy killer. Keep an eye on them early for players like Zac Fisher to see if anyone steps up, but you’re better off using draft picks elsewhere. Setterfield is coming off an ACL, and while Walsh will be hot property in keeper leagues he won’t come into play in redraft fantasy for a year or so.

Put a line through Kreuzer. No one can seem to decide when to pick him in the mock drafts, as he has one of the most varied ADPs out of any player. It averages out to around pick 130 in both formats, however there is simply too much depth at ruck to bother with unless you’re in a 14 team league or play 2 rucks. Coming off the heart issues last year, and already having minor knee surgery (will be available for R1) he’s only good for backup that has upside to become a starter when healthy.

This is how he looks when healthy. ’nuff said

Leave a Reply