Gun – Patrick Dangerfield
As we enter into the 2019 season there is no doubt as to who the number 1 forward in the game is going to be. The fantasy gods bestowed a great gift upon us by giving Dangerfield DPP status as a mid/fwd option this year.
The question this year is how much more is Dangerfield going to average to the next forward. If we look at the numbers from 2018, Danger averaged 0.2 less than Devon Smith, who was the number 1 averaging forward with an average of 106.6 for AFL Fantasy. If we look at his SuperCoach numbers where he averaged 121, he was clearly the number 1 forward with the next best his teammate Tom Hawkins at 101.
Another massive upside to Danger this year is that we have seen Ablett come out and say he will spend more time forward. Last year it was Danger who spent more time forward, and while it affected his average a little bit, it would seem he will be right back in the guts in 2019.
In terms of drafting Danger this year, he is a clear number 1 for me in SuperCoach, while there is some debate as to whether you take him pick 1 in AFL Fantasy or not.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: AFL Fantasy: 3; SuperCoach: 1
#Value – Rhys Stanley
You might think, why the hell am I mentioning this guy as a value pick, but hear me out. While we’re uncertain of the ruck situation at the cattery we have the JLT to see what the Cats are planning on doing with Stanley and the ruck setup.
Stanley had a career year in 2018, averaging 81 AFL Fantasy and 89 SuperCoach with a top score of 113 AFL Fantasy and 149 SuperCoach points. While we always talk about taking a ruck late in your drafts on the podcast, I think Stanley can provide some value at the end of your draft especially if the Cats do continue with their 1 ruck setup and they use Blicavs as the backup.
Currently on the mock.thedraftdoctors.com.au website, Stanley is going late in drafts with an ADP of 187 in AFL Fantasy and 197 in SuperCoach and that means you’re not going to have to spend a high pick in getting a player that may or may not pop.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: AFL Fantasy: 187; SuperCoach 197
Tom Cruise Risky Business – Gary Ablett
We all know Chris Scott likes to play games with the rest of the competition by having 500 late outs before a game and sending our teams into utter chaos, but I think he is taking that to the next level by sending Ablett out in front of the media and declaring he will be playing as a permanent forward. If it was just the coach I would take it with a grain of salt but there has to be some sort of truth to it.
I want to pick Ablett this year, I really do, but the fact he has come out and said he will be playing forward means you are either going to spend an early round pick on a bloke you expect to average 102+ and be Devon Smith esque by starting forward and running straight into the guts or he becomes Luke Dahlhaus ( but with more talent) and averages 90-95.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: AFL Fantasy: 48; SuperCoach: 57
Do Not Draft – Luke Dahlhaus
After leaving the Western Bulldogs feeling unmotivated, Luke Dahlhaus has gone home to Geelong in the hopes to kickstart his career in the hope of getting #moremidtime.
While Dahlhaus has been a decent scorer in fantasy over the years, with his best being 104 in SuperCoach and 97 in AFL fantasy. With a move to the Cats where they were lacking forward pressure, Dahlhaus is a prime candidate to be parked in the forward 50 and play as the small pressure forward, similar to what we saw early in his career at the Bulldogs.
In a team where Hawkins is the focal point of the 50, then they will look to Ablett as the next target, Dahlhaus role seems pretty set. Even if he did get the mid time, there are players the Cats would want to use more in the middle than him like – Partiff, Kelly and Menegola, therefore limiting his scoring potential to when the ball hits the ground inside forward 50. This pick is fraught with danger and I will be steering well clear of Dahlhaus in 2019.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: AFL Fantasy: 124; SuperCoach: 134