#Value – Dion Prestia
2018 ave 85 AFLF/88.9 SC
It’s been a few years since we’ve seen Dion Prestia dominating the fantasy space. A knee reco, a change of team and some limited preseasons have seen Prestia be okay but really an M6/7/bench cover option. Given the range (around pick 140) that Prestia is going, I think he’s super value as we’ve seen him outperform his most recent average quite handily. Add into the fact he’s (allegedly) had as good a preseason and ever and that’s really all I need to get on board.
The fact that Prestia managed to win almost 10 contested possessions per game is of massive interest. He’s a fully fledged mid, who will most likely never get tagged, in a (predicted) good team with the proven record of winning a stack of ball. If he can improve his tackle numbers to his best fantasy seasons, I think Prestia could well outperform expectation.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 141 AFLF/138 SC
#Value – Dustin Martin
2018 ave 92.9 AFLF/103.8 SC
So The Statesman’s Brownlow hangover #curse continued, with Martin being unable to back up his sublime 2017 season from a fantasy perspective. The value here is all in AFL Fantasy scoring formats, as he didn’t quite fall off the cliff so much in SuperCoach and is still being drafted quite highly.
Martin dropped almost 11 points per game, which was a killer if you drafted him early to be your week in week out captain. Spending more time forward and being a frequent tag target certainly helped to quell his output, but there were other factors. And honestly, if he spent more time forward, why did he kick less goals in a better performed home and away team? The fact is, Martin simply didn’t gather as many possessions or lay as many tackles as previous years.
Let’s not forget who we’re talking about. Martin was arguably the biggest name in the game last year and was plastered all over the papers. From the saga with his father in New Zealand and speculation about injury, it all added up to a down year from his exceptional Brownlow season.
I believe he can rise back up the pecking order of midfielders in AFL Fantasy and is coming in at serious unders with his ADP of 36 placing him well below other mids. The rule changes seem to help a player like Martin, and with his final 6 games of 2018 where he put out 4 scores of 110+, you’re looking at a potential bargain.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 36 AFLF/13 SC
#Value – Bachar Houli
2018 ave 73.9 AFLF/73.6 SC
So here’s one for the SuperCoachers out there, since AFL Fantasy are on the ball. Going off the board at almost D40 is perennial top 15 defender, Bachar Houli. Injury robbed him of a decent 2018, his SC average dropping by 20 points and his AFL Fantasy average dropping by 17. Houli didn’t finish 2018 in the worst fashion, but still didn’t put any bangers out. Any worries about lingering injuries were put to rest with a 35 disposal effort in the first JLT match, where Houli crossed the 100 point mark in both formats.
Richmond should still be able to keep the pressure up, which should lead to turnovers in the back half of the ground and plenty of points for fantasy coaches. For some reason Houli is avoiding most of the salary cap hype, and SuperCoach draft players can certainly reap the benefits here as he goes in the double digit rounds of drafts. Snap him up before the teen rounds and hope for a return to prominence.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 97 AFLF/139 SC
Do Not Draft – Nick Vlastuin
2018 ave 73.1 AFLF/81.5 SC
Nick Vlastuin has a role in the Tigers team and it’s one that doesn’t involve doing well for your fantasy team. The thing is, he’s kind of a familiar name and averages borderline what you’d be looking for from your D5. Except he really has no upside. Every now and again he gets a run through the middle and generally does okay, but he’s more important to the Tigers as a defender. Pick someone with upside instead of a totally replaceable player in Vlastuin.
Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 251 AFLF/159 SC