Dozen Deals

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Normally run by the man himself, Steve Fizz has allowed me to step up to his Dozen Deals article. We’ll continue to use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. With a view based on a 10 team 22 player roster, buy, sell, drop, and hold will apply to players that will generally be owned, while add will go for those you may find on the waiver wire.

A slightly better week, we cursed Mundy to get up and do something, Mayne had a good outing and Weller continued his fine form. Orazio also decided to pull his finger out, but he feels like the one that will most be affected by Essendon’s bipolar output. Hope for those that held on, but don’t feel too bad if you dropped him.

Steve hit on an interesting point in the podcast that really relates to what DD is all about. Where the pool of under performing players thins out as they (mostly) come back to form. The phenomenon of regression to the mean; the natural variance of statistics correcting over time. Basically, the longer the season goes, the closer a players average will get to the level that their talent and role should provide. It’s something we all know intuitively, but sometimes we block it out with a more engaging narrative. Dusty has given up, Dom Sheed has gained confidence from his GF goal, Seb Ross has been pushed out in the Saints midfield shuffle. It also explains why it always feels like players you drop will go on to have a good week.

So what do we do with the information? Wheel and deal, baby, wheel and deal.

 

Another player is selected to return to form.

 

DROP – Jamie Elliott

Seems like he’s struggling to get back into it after a decent R1, try streaming a forward and see if they stick while he gets up and going.

BUY – Dustin Martin

Might be difficult given the high name value. But the timing feels right. This one will need a little bit of finesse to pull off depending on the owner. Some will just want to go down with the ship and likely won’t take anything close to value. Some teams with Dusty may have gotten off to a slow start and now that he’s out a week, will be looking to get some wins on the board. I don’t know if I believe it, but the numbers say he should average 90+ fantasy and 100+ SC from here. That’s the battle between the numbers and the narrative.

He’s done it for Richmond when they were bad and good. If you have some players playing above their station, try make a deal, this feels like the lowest point in the Dusty story this year.

ADD – Reilly O’Brien

Need a 1 week streamer in the ruck? Worth a punt in deeper leagues, especially if you have Sam Jacobs, as that knee injury sounds like it could keep nagging him.

BUY – Seb Ross

This is one that really confuses me. He’s getting touches, playing midfield, but hasn’t had a big game.

HOLD – Jack Bowes

This is where it gets tough to trust the numbers a bit. Young players can have really impressive jumps due to natural development. You expect the averages to go up. But not quite to this level. Bowes was averaging 64 last year. I’d be tempted to trade Bowes based on his age and the fact he’s only played 30 games. He may have dips in performance due to this, but it’s hard not to get excited. Bowes is playing on the big bodied mids like Bont and Fyfe and holding up well. This week he has Cripps lined up, and I can’t believe it but I am super pumped for this game. If you have Bowes, enjoy him.

HOLD – Lance Franklin

A slow 3 weeks could mean you’re getting annoyed with Bud. He is going to go large some weeks and win you games. Last year he started with a 3 game average of 120, then went on to average around 100. But during that year he had a 3 game stretch of around 70 average. That’s just part of the deal with him. Embrace the struggles, it makes the random 170 game  all the sweeter.

ADD – Sydney Stack

Jeez this guy looked composed for a first gamer. Richmond has no one else, so someone has to score!

ADD – Jeremy Finlayson

Stevie made the point on the pod that Finlayson has been playing nicely up forward. A tough defence in Geelong this week, makes it difficult. But the fixture opens up after that.

ADD – Jack Graham

He’s owned in 66% of UF leagues, but I suspect that’s based on a good R1 and he may get dropped in a few leagues after the past 2 games. If Dusty misses, and there’s no Cotchin, Graham (along with Caddy) should be seeing an uptick in CBAs. I’d be hoping for about 20 touches and 6 or 7 tackles. Port and Sydney are the next 2 for the Tigers, so this isn’t a certainty, but someone from Richmond has to get the ball, right? This would have been perfect for Grigg, but he’s still rehabbing a knee injury.

BUY – Handsome Tom Lynch

After a slow start to the season, Tom Lynch is still 2nd in the Coleman race with 10 goals in 3 games. He’s got to be one of the worst scoring players per goal, as that’s about all he’s done. His hands haven’t looked great and Tom hasn’t seemed confident running around with his lack of pre-season. Throw in the disarray at the tigers and the situation doesn’t look like

ADD – Josh Walker

One for SuperCoach, if you want Harris Andrews but can’t get him, JWalker is the discount version with a slightly more literal name. Like ‘Man who was bitten by spider’ or ‘bat trauma orphan boy’.

Games for when you have an existential crisis
Bonus shout out to Draft Doctors member, Dos, who apparently has his own game.

HOLD – Josh Dunkley

Look, you might’ve thought he was going to continue on from the end of last year and average 110+. That’s not going to happen with his current role. Despite whatever happened at the draft for you or what the expectations were, he’ll still be a solid player.

2 comments on “Dozen Deals”

  1. Sam, great article and always look forward to it mid week. You mentioned both Graham and Caddy to get more CBA, due to no Cotch and Dusty, but what are your views on Shane Edwards. After all he was AA last year and has DPP status. Would his CBA increase with the same reasoning. Because he’s on the wrong side of 30, is this a reason why you’ve gone for Caddy and Graham to have an increase in mid times.

    1. Hey Jez, appreciate the kind words! I’ve suggested those two as I see them gaining the most in terms of output. After Dusty, Cotchin and Prestia, it’s sort of up in the air.
      I hadn’t really considered Edwards, but he’s a great clearance player. However, as you said, he’s a little older. I don’t think he’ll be the go to, but should be around plenty of stoppages, along with Lambert. But those two are already tracking nicely so it may not give them as much of a boost.
      As for Graham, it’s his biggest strength and I’m hoping Dimma puts him to work!

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