Dozen Deals

3 comments

In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. With a view based on a 10 team 22 player roster, buy, sell, drop, and hold will apply to players that will generally be owned, while add will go for those you may find on the waiver wire.

 

Every week the waiver wire thins out a little more. This continues early in the season, to a certain point where injured players start returning, other players get a new role or find some form and there’s some great value to be had again. We’re nearing the dip here. It’s not easy to sit on your hands when there’s always improvements to be made, and if you’re like me, you’re constantly looking for ways to change it up.

 

Now is a great time to disregard wins and losses, and look at total points. If you’ve had a couple of unlucky losses, it’s not time to panic and force changes that don’t need to be made. If the team is scoring well, hold steady and chance should swing your way soon. If your team is not scoring well, however….

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It do be like that sometimes

This is the time to make some small moves, and see if you can start to turn it around in the next month. The season is long, and opportunities will come.

 

ADD – Will Hoskin-Elliott

After having surgery on an injured knee in Feb, WHE has been back training for about a month and had his first AFL hit out on ANZAC day. He was serviceable and if he can build on last years work and provide a link up to the forward line, might make a nice play.

 

DROP – Jimmy Webster

Part change of role, part regression, Webster hasn’t quite captured his form of early 2018. Still rather highly owned, it’s getting to’ cut him loose’ or ‘ride it out’ decision time. Webster doesn’t have the ‘go down with the ship’ feel for me. Who knows, maybe you’ll feel lighter by cutting him loose!

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What the worst that could happen?

ADD – Taylor Walker

The Texan is slowly playing himself into form. In only 59% of teams, he should be on a few waiver wires. Pick him up and roll him out for good matchups. He’s moving nicely, and only a year removed from a nice 80 average.

 

BUY – Trent Cotchin

I don’t tend to like trading for injured players, but the waiver wire and list of trade candidates feels thin now. It’s hard to strike a bargain as players that were hot to start the year have cooled off (see Dom Sheed), and if not, we’re starting to think this is just how their season will go (See Travis Boak). Given Cotchin has had another setback with his hammy and is 2-3 weeks away, I’d say you can try and get the fed up owner to add him in to an existing deal. Cotch could provide a nice boost in about a months time.

 

ADD – Jack Ross

See above. 3 More Cotch-less weeks gives Ross a little more time around the footy. Nice midfield streaming option.

 

BUY – Jack Gunston

Regardless of why he’s underperforming, Gunston feels too talented a player to stay as poor as he has been. He’s been good for 85+ for years now and taking the risk that he returns to that rest of season is a risk well worth taking.

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ADD – Jed Anderson

Still climbing in ownership, Jed will likely just have ticked over 65%. But if he’s around, jump on. Attended a few bounces and racked it up in the first 3 quarters of Friday night’s game. Had a slow fourth quarter, but still looks to be building his form and fitness after a hamstring injury kept him out of the first 3 rounds..

 

ADD – Jordan Dawson

This is cheating because he has skyrocketed to 76% of leagues after a hot month, but he’s worth mentioning as some leagues may have not seen him floating around. Playing a mix of midfield and forward, Dawson is just the kind of player Sydney will want to get more games into if the season goes belly up. He’s only played 10 games in his career, but was drafted back in 2015 so should have a few pre-seasons behind him now at age 22.

 

ADD – Sydney Stack

He’s had a nice long week to recover and watch replays of himself taking out hard-nut Jack Viney, and has added DEF eligibility in AFL fantasy. With the Bulldogs on deck, he could nab a few intercepts.

 

SELL – Nick Vlastuin

More relevant to SuperCoach, where he averages over 90, Vlastuin is a prime sell candidate. His best score up to this round has been 86. Scores have been decent enough this year, but he’s not going to set the world on fire, see if anyone is interested.

 

ADD –  Nathan Wilson

A very tentative add. Wilson is taking kick outs, yes. But that hasn’t translated into real scoring until this past weekend where he decided not to wait for the other team to score and got the footy in general play. It’s a lean week on waivers, so stash Wilson and see how he goes, has a decent enough role to merit a spot if he can find a hot run of form.

 

DROP – Bailey Williams

#1 Williams fan Dos has just about given up hope. The Draft Doctors red wine support team was on site to help him through the struggle that is ownership. It’s hard to see him coming straight back into the Bulldogs side, and no one else is biting if you drop him. Have a look on waivers.

3 comments on “Dozen Deals”

  1. Hey Sam, am interested in your thoughts on both Billings and Worpel as sell high options in SC. Worpel always one for low TOG without a super high ceiling, and may fade as the year goes on. Thinking Billings more based on St Kilda’s early form and fixtures, though he did score OK in losses in the run home last year.

    Cheers!

    1. Hey Dagan,

      Quick disclaimer, I own Billings in a SC league, so there could be bias here. With that said, I’ve been really happy with his role on the wing.

      In previous years as a half forward he was a lot more reliant on goals and assists. The move has raised his floor as he’s getting plenty of the ball. If the Saints drop off, he’s still in position to score well. I’d say we know what we’re getting with Billings, barring a position change. 25+ touches and not much else, averaging high 80s, low 90s.

      Worpel I’ve seen less of, though I’ve liked his game. He’s running in the midfield, so he’s got a decently high floor as well. I’d rate him similarly to Billings, maybe with less certainty being in only his second year playing AFL level footy, and still building fitness. Could be a pillar of Hawthorn’s future midfield.

      I’d say your concern there is warranted, though it’s not an urgent trade, you’ve got time to float his name out and see if you get anything worth jumping at. Otherwise, ride the Worpedo til he runs out of steam!

  2. Hi Sam

    Whats your thoughts on Jarrod Lyons? Was on the waiver and picked him up given in the past few years hes done ok and im struggling for good mids. Who do you think will do better over the journey, Lyons or Jed Anderson?

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