By We explored in last week’s podcast how data can be helpful when predicting the next James Worpel of 2019, Tim Taranto of 2018 (and 2019!) or Clayton Oliver of 2017. However, data is just one facet of the equation.
We often combine the numbers coupled with a player’s age and years in the league to try and come to a conclusion as to where the player’s scoring trajectory is headed. However, arguably the most important element — OPPORTUNITY — can often be a guessing game. Who knows what the coaches are thinking? What gameplans we’ll see deployed in 2020? Or, how all those glorious pre-season time-trial PBs really translate to on-field performance? In this article, I’ll attempt to carve out a basic — albeit not perfect — guide to assessing the opportunities for scoring available at each club in 2020.
Utilising the AFL’s official list of retirements, delistings and trades, I’ve broken down the incoming and outgoing total seasonal fantasy points for all 18 clubs. These numbers are the total AFL Fantasy points scored in 2019 in the regular home & away season — no former career totals were taken into account. I’ve then subtracted the outgoing players scoring from the incoming to produce the “Net Opportunity” available heading into 2020 for existing existing players, draftees and new recruits — should they improve on their 2019 output. The data does not include the upcoming NAB 2019 AFL draft and the preseason draft (the latter of which can easily be added once it’s complete!).
A POSITIVE number in Net Opportunity means fantasy points have LEFT the club and therefore scoring opportunity is theoretically up for grabs. A NEGATIVE number means that the players ARRIVING at the club outweigh the scoring of those leaving and are adding to the internal competition already at the club. There are a heap of variables to consider, such as whether a team improves or alters their gameplan — potentially increasing the overall output to allow more points to be scored despite more competition. These numbers also don’t account for where the points gained or lost are most prevalent as relating to their positional value. Nevertheless, the numbers provide some context to the potential opportunities for fantasy scoring available at each club heading into 2020.
Adelaide Crows
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 36053
IN:
Billy Frampton (trd).
77
OUT:
Eddie Betts (trd), Richard Douglas (del), Cam Ellis-Yolmen (FA), Hugh Greenwood (trd), Paul Hunter (del), Sam Jacobs (trd), Josh Jenkins (trd), Alex Keath (trd), Andy Otten (ret).
5266
Net Opportunity: +5187
% of Total Team Points: 14%
Brisbane Lions
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 34134
IN:
Grant Birchall (FA), Callum Ah Chee (trd), Cam Ellis-Yolmen
1156
OUT:
Ryan Bastinac (del), Tom Cutler (trd), Matt Eagles (del), Luke Hodge (ret), Ben Keays (del), Corey Lyons (del), Nick Robertson (del), Sam Skinner (del), Archie Smith (del), Lewis Taylor (trd), Josh Walker (del).
3121
Net Opportunity: +1965
% of Total Team Points: 6%
Carlton
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33365
IN:
Eddie Betts (trd), Jack Newnes (DFA), Marc Pittonet (trd).
2720
OUT:
Tom Bugg (ret), Josh Deluca (del), Alex Fasolo (ret), Jarrod Garlett (del), Pat Kerr (del), Kym LeBois (del), Matthew Lobbe (del), Andrew Phillips (trd), Jarrod Pickett (del), Angus Schumacher (del), Dale Thomas (ret).
2671
Net Opportunity: -49
% of Total Team Points: -0.3%
Collingwood
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 37310
IN:
Darcy Cameron (trd)
0
OUT:
James Aish (trd), Ben Crocker (del), Lynden Dunn (del), Tyson Goldsack (ret), Sam Murray (del), Daniel Wells (ret).
1071
Net Opportunity: +1071
% of Total Team Points: 3%
Essendon
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 35122
IN:
Tom Cutler (trd), Andrew Phillips (trd).
645
OUT:
Mark Baguley (ret), Mitch Brown (del), Zac Clarke (del), Matt Dea (ret), Michael Hartley (del), Jordan Houlahan (del), Tom Jok (del), Luke Lavender (ret), Jake Long (del), Ben McNiece (del), David Myers (ret), Trent Mynott (del).
2812
Net Opportunity: +2167
% of Total Team Points: 6%
Fremantle
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33594
IN:
Blake Acres (trd), James Aish (trd).
2145
OUT:
Hayden Ballantyne (del), Harley Bennell (del), Hugh Dixon (del), Bradley Hill (trd), Scott Jones (del), Shane Kersten (del), Ed Langdon (trd), Tom North (del), Ryan Nyhuis (del), Aaron Sandilands (ret).
4896
Net Opportunity: +2751
% of Total Team Points: 8%
Geelong Cats
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 34782
IN:
Josh Jenkins (trd), Jack Steven (trd).
1358
OUT:
Ryan Abbott (DFA), Oscar Brownless (del), Wylie Buzza (DFA), Jordan Cunico (del), Lachie Henderson (del), Jamaine Jones (del), Tim Kelly (trd), Scott Selwood (del), Zac Smith (trd).
2872
Net Opportunity: +1514
% of Total Team Points: 4%
Gold Coast Suns
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 32898
IN:
Brandon Ellis (FA), Hugh Greenwood (trd), Zac Smith (trd).
3008
OUT:
Callum Ah Chee (trd), Brayden Crossley (del), Jack Leslie (del), Jack Martin (del), Tom Nicholls (ret), Connor Nutting (del), Michael Rischitelli (ret), Brad Scheer (del), Josh Schoenfeld (del), Harrison Wigg (del), Aaron Young (del).
1979
Net Opportunity: -1329
% of Total Team Points: -4%
GWS Giants
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 36417
IN:
Sam Jacobs (trd).
403
OUT:
Aiden Bonar (trd), Dylan Buckley (del), Brett Deledio (ret), Jonathon Patton (trd), Tom Sheridan (del), Dawson Simpson (ret), Zach Sproule (del), Jake Stein (del), Adam Tomlinson (FA).
3591
Net Opportunity: 3188
% of Total Team Points: 9%
Hawthorn
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 34439
IN:
Sam Frost (trd), Jonathon Patton (trd).
1154
OUT:
Grant Birchall (FA), Kaiden Brand (DFA), Teia Miles (del), Darren Minchington (del), David Mirra (del), Tim Mohr (ret), Marc Pittonet (trd), Jarryd Roughead (ret), Ryan Schoenmakers (ret).
1372
Net Opportunity: +218
% of Total Team Points: 0.6%
Melbourne
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33421
IN:
Ed Langdon (trd), Adam Tomlinson (FA).
3728
OUT:
Sam Frost (trd), Jeff Garlett (del), Declan Keilty (del), Jay Kennedy Harris (del), Jordan Lewis (ret), Corey Maynard (ret), Tim Smith (ret), Billy Stretch (del), Guy Walker (ret).
3699
Net Opportunity: -29
% of Total Team Points: -0.1%
North Melbourne
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33242
IN:
Aiden Bonar (trd).
84
OUT:
Nathan Hrovat (del), Tom McKenzie (del), Red Og Murphy (ret), Scott Thompson (ret), Declan Watson (del), Tom Wilkinson (del), Sam Wright (ret).
1602
Net Opportunity: +1518
% of Total Team Points: 5%
Port Adelaide
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 35698
IN:
Wylie Buzza (DFA).
0
OUT:
Matthew Broadbent (del), Billy Frampton (trd), Sam Gray (DFA), Riley Grundy (del), Cam Hewett (del), Dougal Howard (trd), Aidyn Johnson (del), Kai Pudney (del), Paddy Ryder (trd), Jack Trengove (del), Boyd Woodcock (del).
4376
Net Opportunity: +4376
% of Total Team Points: 12%
Richmond
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33938
IN:
—
0
OUT:
Dan Butler (trd), Brandon Ellis (FA), Shaun Grigg (ret), Connor Menadue (del), Callum Moore (del), Jacob Townsend (del), Mav Weller (ret).
2494
Net Opportunity: +2494
% of Total Team Points: 7%
St Kilda
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33560
IN:
Ryan Abbott (DFA), Dan Butler (trd), Bradley Hill (trd), Zak Jones (trd), Dougal Howard (trd), Paddy Ryder (trd).
5783
OUT:
Blake Acres (trd), David Armitage (del), Josh Bruce (trd), Billy Longer (del), Paddy McCartin (del), Jack Newnes (DFA), Lewis Pierce (del), Bailey Rice (del), Sam Rowe (del), Jack Steven (trd), Brandon White (del), Robbie Young (del).
4939
Net Opportunity: -844
% of Total Team Points: -2%
Sydney Swans
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 34275
IN:
Sam Gray (DFA), Lewis Taylor (trd).
1842
OUT:
Darcy Cameron (trd), Heath Grundy (ret), Cody Hirst (del), Kieren Jack (ret), Zak Jones (trd), Jack Maibaum (del), Daniel Menzel (del), Jarrad McVeigh (ret), Toby Pink (del), James Rose (del), Nick Smith (ret), Durak Tucker (del).
2833
Net Opportunity: +991
% of Total Team Points: 3%
West Coast Eagles
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 33947
IN:
Tim Kelly (trd).
2131
OUT:
Brendon Ah Chee (del), Matthew Allen (del), Patrick Bines (del), Hamish Brayshaw (del), Keegan Brooksby (del), Chris Masten (del), Fraser McInnes (del), Kurt Mutimer (del), Brodie Riach (del), Josh Smith (del).
1250
Net Opportunity: -881
% of Total Team Points: -3%
Western Bulldogs
2019 Team Fantasy Total: 35683
IN:
Josh Bruce (trd), Alex Keath (trd).
2498
OUT:
Tom Boyd (ret), Dale Morris (ret), Liam Picken (ret), Fletcher Roberts (del), Lukas Webb (del).
92
Net Opportunity: -2406
% of Total Team Points: -6%
% of Total Team Points Out Vs In:
The Opportunity Power Rankings!
- Adelaide (14%)
- Port Adelaide (12%)
- GWS Giants (9%)
- Fremantle (8%)
- Richmond (7%)
- Essendon (6.2%)
- Brisbane Lions (5.8)
- North Melbourne (5%)
- Geelong Cats (4%)
- Sydney Swans (2.89%)
- Collingwood (2.87%)
- Hawthorn (0.6%)
- Melbourne (-0.1%)
- Carlton (-0.3%)
- Saint Kilda (-2%)
- West Coast Eagles (-3%)
- Gold Coast (-4%)
- Western Bulldogs (-6%)
Dos love the numbers analysis.
Would estimate this becomes even more relevant if it’s split by position per team (just give you more work to do), it should highlight who exactly can benefit