I’d like to welcome the Draft Doctors faithful to our newest writer, Michael Berard. He’s put together some consistency charts that look to help ‘expose’ some of the myths about players and explain why their averages may not be a true reflection of how they score. Couple this information with practice drafting over on the Mock Site (https://mock.thedraftdoctors.com.au/home) and you’ll be drafting a more consistent team and hopefully a league winner. Be sure to check out the spreadsheet at the end!
AFL Fantasy – 2019 Defender Consistency Ratings
About the Consistency Spreadsheet:
This spreadsheet analyses defender position ranks throughout the season. I’ve looked at the average scores for the position across the year, and have come up with the following brackets:
|Position Rank||Fantasy Points|
|Elite||1 – 3||Over 120|
|Star||4 – 6||110 – 119|
|Great||7 – 12||100 – 109|
|Good||13 – 22||90 – 99|
|Avg||23 – 60||70 – 89|
|Below Avg||61 – 100||50 – 69|
|Bust||Over 100||Under 50|
The players that hit the higher categories present more value for our draft teams, as they are beating out more of their peers.
Then I’ve broken down 65 defenders, and a few who have picked up Defender status in the off-season, to see how they compare. Simple, right?
- Houli just pips Lloyd as the #1 on the consistency chart, with 63% of games finishing as a top 12 defender. If you are a believer, you could get him as your D1 in the third round.
- Nic Newman (4th on the consistency spreadsheet) and Zach Williams (6th) both presented enormous value for your fantasy team last year. Williams is currently the 6th defender being draft by ADP, where Newman is 12th. Clearly, there are some concerns over Newman’s role with Docherty returning, but he may be a good D1 candidate for the coach looking to punt defenders early.
- Caleb Daniel is one who looks overvalued based on where he is currently being drafted (ADP of 32). He is 13.5 by consistency, despite being the 6th highest scoring defender by average. The truth is, the other top 10 defenders all provided more value for your team in 2019.
- DBJ is getting no love this pre-season – but he is actually value at his current ADP (64). He’s not a sexy pick for your team, and his Round 22 score of 8 has left a sour taste in the mouth of fantasy owners. He ranks 10th on the consistency chart, and looks like a late D2 pick-up based on where he is falling in drafts. So, if you miss out on more hyped players at this position, DBJ is worth consideration, with 30% of his games as a top 12 defender in 2019.
- Two new defenders in AFL Fantasy – Dawson (16th by average, 19.5 by consistency) and Sam Petrevski-Seton (31st by avg, 38th by consistency), will need to continue their improvement in the fantasy game to represent value at their current ADPs (on the Mock Draft Simulator 53 & 100 respectively).
- Callum Mills is exposed for the fantasy fraud that he is, with 90% of his games scoring at Average or lower on the consistency chart. That’s 56th by rank, well below where he sits by average. He’s essentially putting out Burgoyne level of scores for your team. You want to draft Mills at his current ADP of 114? I want you in my league.
- Harry Cunningham seems to be flying under the radar this pre-season. He ranks 15th on the consistency chart and was the 21st defender by average. He has had his issues with injury in the past 12 months, only managing nine games in 2019. However, at his current ADP of 151, he is worth considering for what he could potentially bring to you side in terms of scoring ceiling, with two top 3 finishes at the position last season.
- Nick Vlastuin ranked 23.5 by consistency amongst defenders in 2019. He finished with 42% of his games in the Average category, but he did hit the higher brackets more frequently than many of the players ranked around him. With a current ADP of 122, he’s one to keep on the radar at the D4/D5 spot, where he could add real draft value.
- MacMillan is another who always represents value in draft. He ranked 34th on the consistency in 2019, and has very late ADP of 245. I’m not suggesting that you move him to 34 on your Defender rankings, but if you have taken risks earlier at the position, picking up MacMillan as late insurance would be a good play.
Spreadsheet containing the info and more players:
Thanks for reading, I’ll be bringing the forwards analysis next. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to get in touch on Twitter @Berad87
Check out the below link for all of the data that supported this article!