We’re super stoked at the Doctors to bring you another winner from Michael Berard. He’s taking a slightly different look at the way players score on a weekly basis in AFL Fantasy for your draft leagues. Absolutely worth checking out, this week the focus is on forwards.
AFL Fantasy – 2019 Forward Consistency Ratings
About the Consistency Spreadsheet:
This spreadsheet analyses forward position ranks throughout the season. I’ve looked at the average scores for the position across the year, and have come up with the following brackets:
|Elite||1 – 3||Over 120||1 – 3||Over 120|
|Star||4 – 8||110 – 119||4 – 6||110 – 119|
|Great||9 – 16||100 – 109||7 – 12||100 – 109|
|Good||17 – 30||89 – 99||13 – 22||90 – 99|
|Avg||31 – 70||70 – 88||23 – 60||70 – 89|
|Below Avg||71 – 125||50 – 69||61 – 100||50 – 69|
|Bust||Over 126||Under 50||Over 100||Under 50|
I’ve also included the defenders from the previous analysis, so that we have a comparison between the two. The data supports what we already know – historically, there are more forwards that score higher than defenders. I think there is a feel in the fantasy community that this might not be the case as much in the 2020 season, with so many high-profile scorers losing FWD status.
The players that hit the higher categories present more value for our draft teams, as they are beating out more of their peers. I’ve looked at more forwards than the defender analysis, I always think there is a greater chance of a forward ‘breaking out’.
- Lachie Whitfield just blows the lid off the Consistency Rating. His scores last season would saw him finish as a Top 16 Forward in 81% of games. Yes, he gets injured, but he is still a fantasy jet, and he justifies his worth as a top 3 draft pick.
- Dusty is an interesting one – amongst forwards, he is second drafted on the Draft Simulator (ADP of 11) and was 3rd by consistency last year. I can see him being the #2 Forward by the end of the year. But will it be through his own improvement, or rather Greene’s regression, with the inclusion of more of the G-dubs (GWS, for those not in the know) midfielders. In 2019, Dusty finished outside the Top 30 forwards 50% of the time.
- Heeney (5th) and Ziebell (6th) both look decent in terms of average score, but they slide down when looking at Consistency (10th and 12th respectively). This shouldn’t come as a surprise for Ziebell owners, but those looking to draft Heeney will be hoping for an improved season, with a current ADP of 29.
- Jeremy Cameron looks like value (isn’t he always in Draft?) with a current ADP of 63. He’s a great F2 option this year, after ranking 7th by Consistency last season. 50% of his games in 2019 were Top 30 finishes, and it’s difficult to see that changing this year.
- What is going on with Good Personality Tom Lynch? Is it that we are starting to see some of the cursed old man injuries? Is it that he plays for a team represented by bin birds? His current ADP of 83 looks like incredible value to me, given that he was the 5th forward by Consistency in 2019. He played in the Bushfire T20 Showdown – he’s good to go this year.
Some of the guys that have a large, positive difference between their Consistency and their Average include:
- Mitch Wallis – 23rd by Average, 19th by Consistency
- Jake Melksham – 37th by Average, 29th by Consistency
- Sam Gray – 38th by Average, 27th by Consistency (Hot take: Sam Gray > Robbie Gray this year)
- Jack Darling – 47th by Average, 37.5 by Consistency
- Jeremy Finlayson – 49th by Average, 26th by Consistency (keep in mind that Finlayson benefits whenever Cameron misses).
When looking at the tail end of your draft, I like to look for those options that have at least shown some sort of high-end scoring potential. Here are a few guys to look out for:
- Mitch Brown – for whatever reason, the Bombers decided to let Brown go and hold onto Joey Daniher. Brown now finds himself at Melbourne, who had an abundance of issues entering inside 50. In 30% of his games last year, Brown finished as a Top 30 forward. His current ADP is 299 – which means he will be available at the end of your draft. Worth a pickup if you think he will play early in the season.
- Bailey Smith – in his first season, Smith finished as a Top 30 forward 25% of the time. But it is his rate of Below Average and Bust (45%) games that also has me interested. 45% is a large percentage, but when you compare to the other players around his average – it’s comparably lower (pre-season Golden Child Andrew Brayshaw sat at 55% last year). I know it will be tough for Smith to get midfield minutes, but he could be worth investing in, with a current ADP of 173.
- Shai & Jy – 19% & 16% Top 30 forward finishes for Shai Bolton and Jy Simpkin, respectively.
Full forward consistency chart: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1k6fS3EuxbMB0uwzsD6Zuzdg0La9g3JUSQvOQimiZclE
Thanks for reading, I’ll be bringing out the ruck analysis next. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to get in touch on Twitter @Berad87
Mock Draft Site: https://bit.ly/2ShjGlf
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