AFL Fantasy: Midfield Consistency Rankings

We’re super stoked at the Doctors to bring you another winner from Michael Berard. He’s taking a slightly different look at the way players score on a weekly basis in AFL Fantasy for your draft leagues. Absolutely worth checking out, this week the focus is on the midfield.

AFL Fantasy – 2019 Midfielder Consistency Ratings

About the Consistency Spreadsheet:

Average points per game is often the stat looked at by fantasy coaches. However, this can be misleading at times, so it’s good to consider things from a different perspective. This analysis looks at a midfielder’s position ranks throughout the season. I’ve looked at the average scores for the position across the year, and have come up with the following brackets:

	Rank	Points
Elite	1 – 6	Over 130
Star	7 – 12	120 – 129
Great	13 – 22	110 – 119
Good	23 – 38	100 – 109
Avg	39 – 56	90 – 99
Below Avg	57 – 100	70 – 89
Bust	101 – 130	50 – 69
Big Bust	130 +	Under 50

The players that hit the higher categories present more value for our draft teams, as they are beating out more of their peers. 

We can also compare the midfield position with the previous analysis – showing the depth of scoring at this position: 

Midfielder	Defender	Forward
Rank	Points	Rank	Points	Rank	Points
1 – 6	130 +
7 – 12	120 – 129	1 – 3	120 +	1 – 3	120 +
13 – 22	110 – 119	4 – 6	110 – 119	4 – 8	110 – 119
23 – 38	100 – 109	7 – 12	100 – 109	9 – 16	100 – 109
39 – 56	90 – 99	13 – 22	90 – 99	17 – 30	89 – 99
57 – 100	70 – 89	23 – 60	70 – 89	31 – 70	70 – 88
101 – 130	50 – 69	61 – 100	50 – 69	71 – 125	50 – 69
130 +	Under 50	100 +	Under 50	126 +	Under 50

Some observations:

• Topping the consistency rankings is Andrew Gaff. His lowest rank throughout the year was 52^nd, which is truly incredible. While he doesn’t set the world on fire with his ceiling, he did not have any Below Average performances last season. I think he represents real value in draft this season, with a current ADP of 18 on the Mock Draft Simulator.

• Another who should present value in draft this season is Nat Fyfe, who was 7^th by consistency in 2019. Sure, he’s had his share of injuries over the years, but you will likely pick him up as you second midfielder (ADP of 24), helping to reduce the risk.
  
• Poor Jack Billings… losing Forward status has left him with no hype. I can’t help him out either – he is 49^th by consistency, despite sitting 31^st by average. He was in the Average or worse bracket in 50% of his games. That is… not good. He may be fortunate enough to regain his Forward status during the year, but you can’t bank on these things. Avoid, particularly with his current ADP of 86!

• Once a premium fantasy scorer, Luke Parker’s best now seems behind him. He ranks 44^th by consistency, despite his average having him much higher. With an ADP of 49, he is still commanding a high draft pick, so proceed with caution. 

• Going to give some love to Marc Murphy here – he ranked 26^th by consistency last season, fourteen spots higher than his average. He was Good or better in 56% of his games, superior to many of the players above him by average. With an ADP of 92, you are likely to pick him up after someone else has made the mistake of drafting Billings – I’d be excited.

• Jack Viney and Ben Cunnington – two players with similar 2019 averages and similar 2020 ADPs… and coincidentally, they have a similar consistency rating (66^th and 67^th, respectively). These are later draft picks (around the 16^th Round) that will provide some consistent output for your midfield.

Some quick differentials between a player’s Consistency and their Average include:

• Shaun Higgins – 28^th by Consistency, 43^rd by Average (+15)
• Ollie Wines – 38^th by Consistency, 50^th by Average (+12)
• Touk Miller – 42^nd by Consistency, 55^th by Average (+13)
• Mitch Duncan – 20^th by Consistency, 13^th by Average (-7)
• Dion Prestia – 35^th by Consistency, 27^th by Average (-8)
• Angus Brayshaw – 71^st by Consistency, 62^nd by Average (-9)

Note – spreadsheet now has a ‘Differential’ column to get a quick look at differential between player Average and Consistency rating.

Spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1DTYnNsBvh-IeBD79pa65sTlHN5_8VbkKGugtTNdSIQY