We’re super stoked at the Doctors to bring you another winner from Michael Berard. He’s taking a slightly different look at the way players score on a weekly basis in AFL Fantasy for your draft leagues. Absolutely worth checking out, this week the focus is on the rucks.
AFL Fantasy – 2019 Ruck Consistency Ratings
About the Consistency Spreadsheet:
This analysis looks at a ruck position ranks throughout the season. The rucks have a greater deal of variance, due to the smaller number of players at the position. I’ve looked at the average scores for the across the year, and have come up with the following brackets:
|Star||2 – 3||110 – 125|
|Great||4 – 5||100 – 109|
|Good||6 – 8||90 – 99|
|Avg||9 – 12||80 – 89|
|Below Avg||13 – 15||70 – 79|
|Bust||Over 16||Under 70|
The players that hit the higher categories present more value for our draft teams, as they are beating out more of their peers.
Grundy (Avg 1st, Consistency 2nd) vs. Gawn (Avg 2nd, Consistency 1st)
Let’s get the awkward fact out of the way first up – Gawn rates higher on the Consistency rating, marginally. In 84% of games, Gawn was top 5 at his position, compared to Grundy’s 67%. I’ve had a deeper look at the stats and a few of Grundy’s lower position ranks simply came on high scoring weeks for the ruck position. For example, in Round 16, Grundy finished 9th at the position, despite scoring 100 points. This is an issue when applying this sort of analysis on the rucks, where scores have greater variance due to the smaller number of players at the position each week. I guess what I’m trying to say through all of this is… don’t change your Grundy rankings because of this stat. And Gawn is an excellent #2 ruck.
Scott Lycett (Avg 8th, Consistency 13th)
The definition of inconsistency in 2019. Lycett ranked Good or better in 26% of his games and was a Bust in 38%. I think we are all aware of the impact Ryder had when sharing duties with Lycett. With Ryder moving on, it’s just a case of watching the Marsh series to see if Ladhams is getting game time. If Lycett ends up going into 2020 as the solo ruck, he could see a big jump up the rankings. Based on his current ADP of 61 (that’s the 6th ruck off the board) on the Mock Draft Simulator, fantasy coaches are banking on Lycett playing most of his game time in the ruck. C’mon Ken, we don’t need another reason to get the #HinkleyOut going!
Rhys Stanley (Avg 11th, Consistency 8th)
I’ve never been a Stanley truther, but he does deserve some attention here. He ranked Good/Great in 43% of games and was a Bust in only 14% of games. The rest of his finishes were Average – which is what he is. But with a late ADP of 225, this guy is another option for those looking to punt the ruck and spend their early picks (many of them) on the other position lines.
Jonathon Ceglar (Avg 19th, Consistency 16th)
Another one to watch in the pre-season. Big Boi McEvoy went off injured in the Thursday’s game against the Saints, and Ceglar didn’t light the world on fire from limited game time (47 points from 66% game time). He did show his ability to be a better contributor during the 2019 season, with 24% of his games finishing 3rd-6th at the ruck position. Thankfully, he also has DPP so you are likely picking him up as a forward with the ability to back up your ruck.
That’s it for the 2019 AFL Fantasy Consistency Ratings. There will be an update for the Ultimate Footy position adds coming soon, and I will start looking at applying this to Supercoach for the fans of that format (y’know the boomers, like Jono and Steve).
Draft Kit: https://bit.ly/2P9tkEL
Mock Simulator: https://bit.ly/2HN1DgV