Scientists Hate Him

The Marsh Community Series is on and hype szn is well and truly on. (Is pick 2 too high for Petracca?) All the well laid ground work that’s been put in by prepared individuals has been unceremoniously thrown out for the sweet morsels of actual (practice) game time.

Scored a 70? Maybe next year, champ.

Let’s take advantage, then. Players like Petracca and Darcy MacPherson are climbing up draft boards everywhere, leaving some once valued players to slide on down. The only problem is, how do you track the perceptions that other players have? You want to build your draft plan, but to do that you need to see how much the hype is affecting a players Average Draft Position. Just use this simple formula.

Take the Marsh average, multiply by the game time percentage and deduct a quarter of the difference from last years post-bye average, then add 4 points for each news articles on the player.

Or you can use the Mock Draft Simulator. You know what, forget the formula; it doesn’t factor in whether or not a player is tearing up the track or hitting PBs in the weight room. The Mock Draft Sim factors everything by updating based on the selection other coaches are making when they draft. So the sim gets better by using it, and you get better by using the sim. Win win.

But what good is a simulator if it can’t be set up with similar specifications to the real thing? That question answers why fleshlights are a thing, but also lead to the Mock Draft Sim having features to customise your league set up. Whether it’s scoring format (SuperCoach, AFL Fantasy and Ultimate Footy), draft order (linear, snake, banzai), league size (from 6-18 teams), or lineup format (with 6 options to choose from), you’re covered. Much like a fleshlight, the draft sim is designed to give you a realistic and utterly erotic experience.

One will leave you feeling ashamed and inadequate, the other is a fleshlight.

What else to do but set which pick you’re at and draft? I ran through a quick draft, so let’s reveal how terrible I am at this by taking you through it. Dossy has you covered if you want a run though in video form, too!

For reference, I play SuperCoach in a 10 team league with 5-7-1-5 field and 4 bench spots in a snake draft. Since my league doesn’t give the order until draft day, it’s important to try plenty of different scenarios so I’ll be ready no matter which way things go on the day. Using a random number generator, I landed a 6 so let’s jump in at pick 6.

Aaand I already know I don’t want pick 6. After Grundy, Macrae, Neale, Cripps, and Gawn come off the board, you’re left with an interesting choice, and no ‘safe’ option.

Tempting….

Whitfield becomes a viable pick here, but we use captains, so you’re giving up the points you’d probably get from the next tier of midfielders. Danger/Fyfe/Dunkley/JKelly/Bont are all solid options, but you could take one of them at pick 10 (and another at pick 11), so having pick 6 feels like a waste here. I’ve begrudgingly gone Whitfield.

The way back down isn’t a whole lot better, as you’re a little too late for the top tier second rounders. Getting two of the above six or Clayton Oliver would be great value and leave you with two good captain options. But Adam Treloar made it back as a lot of teams are eager to get a D1 in Lloyd or an F1 in Dusty early second. I’ve elected to take on the risk of Tom Mitchell at 15 as it may make up for the points I give up for Whitfield in R1. But I’m uncomfortable with the risk taken on so early.

Would I take this risk on in the real draft? A good question to figure out now, rather than on draft day. What would I do differently?

This is where the real value comes in for the mock draft. With as much time as I wanted to plan and look over my team as I went, this has shown I’m not quite there on my draft strategy. I wouldn’t be happy with my defence at all, and I feel like I did what I tried to advise against and picked some early forwards.

  • At pick 26, Isaac Heeney vs James Sicily is a decision I might make differently on draft day (definitely if Laird slips). But I love Heeney and despite the fact he’s too valuable up forward for Sydney, he’ll do well enough to support that decision (I hope).
  • The real issue is a round later, pick 35. Rory Sloane comes off the board a few picks before Luke Ryan. A classic heart over head pick, that if I go back and change, completely changes the balance of my team. I can have Ryan and Jarrod Berry instead of Sloane and Doedee. A valuable lesson.
  • Midfielders went deeper than I had thought, with more value in the mid rounds than I thought, especially helpful if you double up on mids in the first two rounds, you could sort a great defender and forward afterwards knowing there’s still decent stock left for the mids.
  • Pick 10 looks very tempting. The team at 10 got JKelly and Bontempelli, followed up with James Sicily, Tim Kelly, and Jack Crisp. They could have had Hugh Greenwood next, which makes for a pretty strong 6. They took Goldstein, however. Speaking of:
  • Punt rucks. This has solidified my thinking on this. Unless you can get Grundy/Gawn, there’s a serviceable ruck available at the end of the draft. Martin came in at pick 166, about 100 picks after Goldy/Witts. Sam Jacobs/Tim English/Sean Darcy/Matthew Kreuzer were all still available until the 180s, too.

So where does that leave me? I’m off to try again with another draft and improve on some of the bad decisions I made. You can too, as you get TWO drafts per day free on the Mock Draft site. This gives you plenty of time to run through a few different strategies in the lead up to your draft.

For those that want a little more depth and detail, there’s a full membership option that allows you to download your finished drafts, provides downloadable ADPs, and even allows you to draft against the Draft Doctors ranks to give you a further edge over the competition.

After using the Mock Draft Sim

As the first week of the Marsh Series has shown, there’s still plenty of hype to be thrown around, so jump onto the Simulator and see how the draft landscape is changing daily. A couple of well thought out picks is the difference between taking it all home and another year wasted.

Then, when you’re done and want feedback, join the community and chuck up your draft on Twitter with #showusyourpicks. Together, we can end bad drafts.