A relatively successful week for adds, though not all panned out (sorry about vandemBerg, Dossy). Zac Fisher didn’t get the call up but impressed in a scratch match, though sometimes it seems every game is sort of a scratch match. Gibbons went large and Hogan improved. All three are still below are threshold of ownership so worth another look this week.
But the AFL has shown anything can happen, as QLD slams the door on Vic clubs and forces more fixture changes. Streaming forwards for match up plays are a risky proposition for now. But if there’s any new hubs, there could be value found, but first the AFL has to tell Victorian clubs:
For those new to Dozen Deals, we dive into players worth adding (that are under 65% owned in Ultimate Footy), players you should drop or hold, as well as players you might want to buy or sell in a trade. To keep it semi consistent, a 10 team 22 player format is the standard, but all leagues should be able to find value here.
Let’s get into it.
DROP Jeremy Howe
Knees ain’t supposed to bend that way. Rough injury for Jez, and will see him out 3-4 months. May be worth stashing if you can hold out that long, but might be better to move him on to get someone that can help now.
Zac Fisher/Michael Gibbons/Jesse Hogan ADD
A threefer! All from last week and worth a look again this one. I do wonder if Fisher will impact on Gibbons so tread lightly here. Or stock up on all the Blues? Hype train, anyone?
Charlie Dixon ADD
A monster performance vaults big Charles into the equation for many sides. He’s still a tall, and he’s still prone to all the pitfalls of other tall forwards, but Port are flying now, and in this season, you gotta grab stuff while it’s there.
Shaun McKernan ADD
‘Ol reliable. McKernan can be found on the waiver wire almost every year, as a sort of discount Mr fix it Westhoff type, who’s found his niche at the Bombers as a forward that pitch hits in the ruck
Jack Ziebell BUY
Played injured (rolled ankle) on Sunday, and boy did he score like it. The final score in the game really complements North, as for 3 quarters, they played like their incompetent alter ego, Norf. The forward line (where Ziebell was spending most of his time) was a barren wasteland, limiting all opportunity. With his terrible round 1 score, and now round 4 score, Ziebell’s average is well below where it will likely end up, so he presents a value option. Of course, he missed the end of the game with a sore hammy and has a history of playing hurt so factor that in when you slide into the Ziebell owners DMs
Darcy Moore ADD
Traditionally better in SC, Moore may find relevance in all formats in the wake of Jeremy Howe’s knee injury. It’s hard to say exactly how Collingwood will reshuffle, but he’s worth an add in SC and a look in other formats to see how he does.
Stephen Hill ADD
Okay, okay. I get it. But trust me, his body can’t break down again. Right?
At any rate, Hill got through his first game back from constant injury, performed okay, and might just be ready to take the season on. At 30 years old, he’s not cherry ripe, but the shorter quarters may be a gift to the aging speedster.
Matt Crouch BUY
Dropped from the side. That’s rough. The superior Crouch (you heard me) should make his way back into the side because shockingly, dropping him didn’t help the team perform any better. Surprisingly, Bryce Gibbs still can’t get a guernsey, making the trade from the Blues look worse and worse over time. All this uncertainty at Adelaide may have Crouch owners feeling a little jumpy.
Taylor Adams SELL
This may be a little reactionary, but with Treloar coming back, we may be at the peak of Taylor Adams scoring this season. They can play together of course, but Collingwood may not need to rely on Adams as heavily as they have in the past 4 games. Being in the top 10 fantasy scorers this year, trying to trade him may raise eyebrows, but if you can bring him into a trade organically, you could just about name your price. Something to consider at this stage.
Jack Darling DROP
This is a rage one on my part. Maybe he’ll be fine once the Eagles are settled back in WA, but sometimes when your team isn’t performing you have to remove the stink. Jack Darling is the stink on my team and he’s gone. To everyone holding on to him, you’re welcome for the inevitable 4+ he kicks on Sydney.
Reece Conca ADD
Getting into speculative territory, as Nat Fyfe missed the second half of Saturday night’s game with a hammy injury. While there’s no news on how long he’ll be out, if it’s an extended period of time, it’s worth looking at some options at the Dockers. Conca has been playing in defence, but can play through the mids if the Dockers need someone inside with a few more years under their belt. Cerra is another option for #moremidtime, and of course Acres is on the cusp of returning from injury so we could see him slot straight in.
Dan Butler SELL
Just coming off a game smashing his former side, it may be time to look at moving Butler. He has impressed in all 3 games since footy returned, and Carlton are coming up. So why sell? It would seem Butler is over performing at the moment, sure, but the real concerns come in with Geelong and the stingy defence of Port Adelaide on the horizon (for now anyways).
Hi Sam
Thanks for you weekly articles. Unlike last year when I held up the holy grail, it’s struggle town sitting low down the ladder. Should’ve picked Gibbons but picked up the big “O” after listening to the pod on waiver pickups Rd3
But what are your thoughts on trading out Luke Ryan. He’s playing tall, not his gig, but he’s not producing the goods. Is he a sell option. Wins are a premium in this shortened season and I need some pronto.
Cheers
Jez
Hey Jez, Good to hear from you again.
Big O should be a solid option, but man did he have a rough one. Gibbons has been a bit of a surprise so far, hopefully Teague keeps him around the ball as he’s a natural mid-type.
As for Ryan, I’m in there with you. Not sure what to do with him. Might depend on your league. For mine, hasn’t been a big performer long enough to have real name value, and his numbers this year would mean your return in a trade isn’t ideal. I’d put the feelers out on a sort of 2 for 2 type trade. Try and trade a DEF and FWD for a DEF and FWD. You give up the better defender in the deal (Ryan) and the other coach gives up a better forward. I’ve found deals like this can help balance the risks of a single player out across the others involved.
It’s hard to forget the lost draft pick now, but we gotta move on and look at what he’s worth today, and see if there’s anyone that’s willing to give more than that. I just wish I picked Sicily!
Cheers.
Why would you sell Butler? He’s top 5 goal scorers and one of the best tacklers and he’ll get better as the season goes. Such a stupid advice really.
Dan is that you?
In all seriousness, a sell candidate doesn’t mean you need to get them out of your team. More so that they may have peaked in trade value. My feelings on Butler are that he’s been performing really well, but we haven’t seen this from him before. Maybe he wasn’t given the opportunities at Richmond that he’s now getting at St Kilda, and he can sustain this level of play. Like you said, though, he’s in the hunt for the Coleman and putting up elite tackling numbers. My concern is that without history behind him, there’s no certainty that continues. A slight regression is possible. Don’t get me wrong though, he’s going to be great value for his ADP if you hold onto him! An absolute steal that would have gone undrafted in many leagues.
Let’s not forget the beauty of draft. We all value players differently, and that’s how trades happen. In a league that trades openly, players naturally flow to the team that value them the most. If I had Butler, you and I would easily be able to come to a deal. You’re confident he’s only going to get better. I’m thinking that after the Carlton game, things may get tougher for the Saints and Butler may have to deal with extra attention thanks to how dangerous he is around goal. Might be that we both walk away from a trade feeling like we’re winners. Until time makes fools of us all. That’s why we play!
Thanks.
Hi, what are your thoughts in Gunston? He is absolutely stinking it up! Laird too! I drafted these guys and they are letting me down.
On the other hand, selecting Parfitt with one of my last picks looks really good!
Hi Andrew,
It’s tough, carrying under performing high picks is awful. Luckily, much like Parfitt, there have been some great late picks to be found! I spose we have to take the good with the bad, but it doesn’t make holding the Gunston’s and Laird’s of the world any easier.
For Gunston, I think he’s looked okay on the eye test, but his poor numbers might suggest he’s not getting as involved as he could be. He’s worth holding on to; can’t see there being too many buyers for him and he’s got the potential to turn it around as he hasn’t looked bad. Which is to say, he’s better than what you’d get in a trade or off the waiver wire, just off potential. But your ladder position and team makeup should dictate whether you can carry him.
Laird is an interesting case. He’s looked a little bit rougher, and given how his game is built on accumulating there’s real concerns that he might not turn it round. I look at him like Matt Crouch. If I was in need of a defender, I’d talk to the Laird owner as I feel they’d be willing to part with him for a reasonable amount. With you on the other side of that equation, I’d maybe look at the games Adelaide have played so far. Laird’s worst games were against the Lions and Power. A couple of really strong teams this year. If you traded him now, it could be at a low point in value.
Laird is still in the top ~20 defenders in both formats, so he’s not a sinking ship that you need to either bail from or scrap for parts.
Overall, stay the course, but explore opportunity. It’s hard and it may not work out perfectly, but a trade just to get rid of these guys may only compound the risk you’re taking on. Assess where the weak points in your team, and approach a trade as a chance to get in players with great opportunity, rather than to remove players with high risk.
And hey, if the right deal comes along you may just be able to do both!
All the best, mate.
Cheers
(Full disclose I love Gunston and the Desk Man, I’m pulling for a turnaround!)
Thanks for the detailed response. Incredibly insightful and helpful.
I will stick around on this site and keep an eye out for more articles!
Keep up the awesome work.