Everyone wants a value, but not every player is one. Whether it’s lack of upside, not completing a full preseason or additions to the team that could mean a role change, some players get overdrafted. They then don’t return value during the season and set you back on your quest to win your league. Let’s take a look at a few.
2021 Draft Kit: https://bit.ly/3tYsI7t
Mock Draft Simulator: https://bit.ly/2Zc7JA2
- Jack Gunston (F) ADP 100
It’s been pretty well publicised that Gunston is missing all the preseason and at least a few early rounds of the home and away season with a back injury, yet his ADP is still hovering around 100. It’s hard to see him replicating his productive 2020 coming off this injury, especially when it looks like the Hawks are destined to struggle in 2021. Kane Lambert, Jack Higgins, Sam Powell-Pepper and other seemingly better options are all available for the same price (or later) and won’t be missing time.
2. Elliot Yeo (M) ADP 98
I really like Yeo as a player, but the last thing I want is someone dealing with osteitis pubis heading into the season. Preseason will be more important than ever, with it being shorter and rotations being cut. Couple that with West Coast’s midfield being chock full of talent as it is, and it’s hard to see Yeo drafters not having issues with him through the year. Still a bit early here when you can get guys like JOM, Ollie Wines and Jarrod Berry for around the same price and lots of other good mids even later (Cerra, etc).
3. Sam Naismith (R) ADP 194
I would never usually bitch about a player drafted so late but people, c’mon. He’s missing the bulk of the season with an ACL injury and Sam Draper is still getting drafted after him? Give your head a shake.
4. Jarrod Witts (R) ADP 62
Witts is terrible value. There, I said it. He’s had one banger year in AFL Fantasy, and by banger I mean over 100. And in that year he set the hitouts record. It’s no surprise he dropped off last year and why he should be more like who he’s been before that year, which is a middling ruckman. Now, Witts has some redeeming features, in that he’s the main man, he’s durable and there’s no split ruck set up at the Suns. However, you can get Tim English ten picks later, or even better, get Nankervis/Preuss/Stanley?etc ten rounds later and use that earlier pick to bolster your mids or forward line. At that point you’re passing on Rozee, De Goey, Pendles, Isaac Smith, Andy Brayshaw for a guy that might outscore a late ruck by 5 points over the season.
5. Shai Bolton (M/F) ADP 49
I like Shai Bolton, he’s great to watch, and maybe him going here says more about the forwards than anything, but jeez it feels early to me. He has put out a couple of okay scores and a lot of middling ones, and the forwards being selected around him aren’t without their warts also. De Goey, Butters, Wingard are all in the same area, whilst Rozee, Lambert, Isaac Smith and Hawkins are all going 20 odd picks later. Bolton definitely gets the mid time, is in a gun side and can score, I just would’ve liked to have seen more to get around a pick before 50. The 11th forward off the board – it feels like a few of those guys I mentioned will end up ahead of him – or will they? Interesting player, just too rich for me.
6. Isaac Heeney (F) ADP 33
Need to see something outta Heeney over the preseason before I’m biting in this range. Heeney’s been pretty consistent over his career so far, being that guy who can score well as a forward but isn’t going to get that consistent midfield time to see him rifle up to a 100 average. He’s like Toby Greene and Chad Wingard in that respect, and he might be the best scorer as a pure forward, but he’s coming off a serious ankle injury and is going ahead of all those guys. I’m not saying he won’t be right, but training reports have him coming along rather than firing and I want to see it first. Still might not be great value when he’s essentially the same as others in terms of being capped when others are fit and have perhaps a better shot/clearer path to midfield minutes.