Everyone wants value, but not every player is one. Whether it’s lack of upside, not completing a full preseason or additions to the team that could mean a role change, some players get overdrafted. They then don’t return value during the season and set you back on your quest to win your league. Let’s take a look at a few.
Tom Hawkins(F) ADP 49
Hawkins had career year averaging 106 and took home the Coleman medal in 2020. Over the preseason the Cats added Jeremy Cameron to their team as well. Hawkins has always been a solid draft choice for our teams, but in 2021 I will be steering clear of him. With the draft pick you are expected to use, you are relying on Hawkins maintain that average or going better. I just can’t see that happening with the arrival of Cameron. You may be tempted to grab Hawkins early to due to lack of forward depth but look to grab someone a little safer like a Jack Martin or Shai Bolton.
Jarryd Lyons(M) ADP 36
It is safe to say that we would never consider Lyon to be an uber premium, we can say he is a safe vanilla pick for our draft teams. You want him as that M4 as he seems to make your team that bit more balanced. Lyons averaged 14 points above his previous best average and I see it hard for him to maintain that output. With guys like Pendlebury and Parker sitting down the list with lower ADP’s, I’d be more inclined to take one of those guys than Lyons who is a prime candidate to move to regression city.
Michael Walters(M/F) ADP 43
Walters has been a fantastic pick over the last 2 years as he has retained his forward status while playing a large role in the midfield. Now that Fremantle have developed some of their younger players who can now play sustained minutes in the guts, Longmuir has announced that it is time for Walters to head back to the forward line. With that I wouldn’t be touching Walters where his ADP is set at with a 10-foot pole. With more time spent in the forward line, Walters scoring output is going to be greatly reduced and the pick needed to draft him, I can’t see a return on value.
Adam Saad(D) ADP 68
I feel like this is a trap. In 2020 Saad produced his best year averaging 98. That’s a massive 17 points above his previous best which he achieved in 2019. Now I’m not saying Saad is a bad pick, but the fact he had a massive year and has moved to a club that has plenty of options in to move the ball from defence in Docherty, Newman and SPS. Yes, Zac Williams is their as well but by all reports he will be playing in the midfield, so I have excluded him. The fact Saad’s previous best average was 81, if you were picking him on his average and he regresses back to around the 80 mark then you are potentially losing up to 10 points on other guys around him like Nick Vlastuin (ADP 74) and Brayden Maynard (ADP 69).
Tom Papley(F) ADP 124
Papley has enjoyed being the focus of the Swans forward line, with Heeney and Franklin both missing extended periods of football. With both set to return in 2021, I feel the Swans focus will be on those 2 when going inside 50, relegating Papley back in the pecking order hurting his fantasy output. Where Papley’s ADP sits right now, there are other guys around him like Jye Calwell (ADP 111) and Cam Rayner (ADP 122) who have more upside to their game and they’re the guys I’d like to spend my pick on.