In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD, or DROP. This is based on a 10 team 22 player roster. BUY, SELL, HOLD, and DROP will apply to players that are generally owned, while ADD will cover players you may find on the waiver wire or as a free agent.
With round three behind us, we’re starting to get some data to play with. Roles are becoming more clearly defined, breakouts are looking real, and most of our premiums have banked at least one decent score to give us some confidence. For those that are struggling, I’m still in favour of holding for even a few more weeks. The name of the game now is to test out the nerve of opposition coaches who are spooked by a run of low scores. Buy premiums low and sell your bench players if they’ve had a couple of decent weeks that look like flashes in the pan. My favourite strategy is to package up two players in exchange for one premium. It might be something like a 90-95 averaging mid and your D3 for a premium midfielder or defender. It’s a good way to get trades done, especially if you can identify that an opposing coach has a weakness or excess in a specific line.
Buy: Tom Mitchell
A real buy low candidate. You’re still going to have to pay up for him, and pay significantly, but he might for the first time in a long time be gettable from a coach who used their first round pick on him. With scores of 89, 98, and 87 so far, Titch hasn’t set the world alight. In fact, no one seems to have been able to pump out massive scores at the Hawks so far, which in some ways is comforting, because it means he hasn’t lost his role as the prime mover in the Hawks’ engine room. It’s a long season, and while he may not reach the outright piggery of 2017 and 2018, he’s a huge chance to be a captain option for you in the back half (the important half) of the year. Test the nerves of your opposing coaches and make an offer.
Buy: Cam Guthrie
Here’s another buy low candidate that I’d be looking to jump on. He’s always been an impact player with lowish time on ground (TOG), but usually gets well above the 68% of last week. As this builds, so will his scores. He’s still probably second in the Geelong engine room behind Dangerfield, and at 29, with a 4 year contract, bizarrely represents the youth in their midfield. He’s more than capable of M1 scoring in the second half of the year, so buy low and I don’t think he’ll let you down.
Buy: Jack Sinclair
One of St Kilda many Jacks, Sinclair has been super consistent to start the year, and is exactly the type of player I’d be looking to bring into my defence. His role looks to be rock solid, with no one threatening to move in and steal minutes or cheap possessions from him. Grab him before opposition coaches become too attached to this A-grade seagull.
Sell: Jack Ziebell
This could be risky, but what we had feared has come to pass. Hall is in the same role as last year, meaning Ziebell is left to mop up the scraps. In fantasy terms, this means his scoring is likely to be capped around the 80 average mark. Yes, he’ll pop out the odd ton (like his 127 last week), but in between you’ll have to put up with putrid displays like this week’s 49. The risk is that hall gets injured and his premium scoring returns, but I’d probably prefer to negotiate a trade and shore up other lines.
Sell: Shai Bolton
Every year I’m convinced it’s Bolton’s year. He plays a game where he looks amazing in the midfield and I persuade myself to pick him up the following season, thinking surely Dimma will make him a full-time mid. Unfortunately, every year, Dimma lets me down and he plays the same putrid forward/mid split that leads to nothing scoring. He’s slightly better than a free agent and forwards are scarce, so you should be able to get something juicy for him. Dangle him as trade bait and hook a big one!
Sell: Jeremy Cameron
We’ve had some buy low candidates, so here is a sell high. Cameron kicked a massive 6 goals, which would usually mean a score above 120. He just scraped to 101, which doesn’t bode well for his scoring against tougher opposition. Sell him now for maximum value. He’s good, but he won’t kick 6 every week.
Hold: Josh Kelly
A great example of salary cap talk being completely irrelevant to draft leagues is the chorus of people considering trading out ‘underperforming’ premiums like Kelly, Mitchell, Steele, or Macrae. He hasn’t gone massive, but his scores have been serviceable. Hold on, the big scores will come. He’s a proven star, don’t even think about trading him this early.
Hold: Dyson Heppell
A D1 option for lots of coaches, Heppell has made people understandably nervous. This week, while he didn’t set the fantasy world on fire, he showed that his role is still there. With Merrett out for 6-8, McGrath has moved back to the midfield. Hold Heppell at least until Merrett comes back and hopefully he’ll build a nice run of scores for you.
Add: Tristan Xerri
The number 1 ruck role is real, so grab him as a forward and take advantage of his round 6 DPP. While he won’t average massive scores, Xerri should nab enough hitouts to build a solid floor to his scoring and provide you with great flexibility. If he’s available, get him in immediately. And keep an eye on a solid young recruit, Todd Goldstein, to take the Cats’ no. 1 ruck role for 2023.
Add: Will Day
Back from injury, Will Day didn’t miss a beat. Get him off the waiver wire or free agency list if he’s still there, because he’s a jet. The only thing that will slow him down is that pesky ankle. Cross your fingers he’s been rebuilt like the 2004 Hawks list, not the 2004 Carlton list.
Drop: Liam Baker
His role is terrible, his scoring has been terrible. I’m unsure why Hardwick keeps naming Baker as the starting centre half forward, but let’s call this a late draft lottery pick that didn’t work out. So rather than hang onto him, get digging on the free agent list and buy a new ticket. Take a punt on a Day, a Foley, or a Nelson and see if it pays dividends… Because unfortunately, Liam Baker won’t.
Drop: Will Powell
This is heartbreaking… It was supposed to be Powell season! Natural progression, the only other half back injured, Gold Coast are average again and the ball is sitting in their backline… It was all so juicy and compelling. As you can probably tell, I certainly got sucked into the Will Powell narrative, and to be honest, I have no idea what went wrong. With scores of 55, 63, and 46 though, it’s time to part ways. Goodnight, sweet William.