In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD, or DROP. This is based on a 10 team 22 player roster. BUY, SELL, HOLD, and DROP will apply to players that are generally owned, while ADD will cover players you may find on the waiver wire or as a free agent.
We are well into the season now, with 5 rounds of data. Despite this, I’d still (and I feel like I say this every week) be holding onto most of my premium players, even if they are delivering a tad below what you’d hoped. Spotting value is the name of the game at this point, which means bringing in players that won’t cost you the world but could deliver in a big way after the bye rounds. Likewise, looking to trade out or drop players who’ve had a major role change that will impact their scoring going forward could benefit your team greatly. While tempting, it’s important to avoid trading for players like Andrew Brayshaw or Bailey Williams, who have had amazing starts to the year, but would cost you the metaphorical farm to pry away from their owners. Of course, if someone offers them up on a platter, take the deal, but remember that the low (or Yeo) hanging fruit is much easier to pick!
Buy: Elliot Yeo
The YeoYo may as well have been walking the dog to start the season, having missed every round before this week hobbling to 65 from 66% game time. The shining light for fantasy coaches, is that his most recent injury had nothing to do with the dreaded osteitis pubis that derailed his 2021 year. This means that he’s a buy low candidate if ever there was one. We all know that when on the park and in full flight, he’s the top midfielder at the Eagles. As a fantasy player, he has a huge ceiling, and is more than capable of averaging over 100. Grab him cheaply now and watch him explode in the back half of the season.
Buy: Jade Gresham
Jade Gresham has been super consistent this year, showing a great floor to his scoring, even if he hasn’t quite broken out with a big ceiling game (his highest score this year has been 99 in rounds 1 and 5). For a forward however, that’s ok. I’d take consistent 70+ scores every day over a key forward who scores 110 one week, followed by 40 the next. I fear that when Gresham inevitably has a big week cracks the ton, he’ll be too hard to get in a trade, so slide in to an opposing coaches DMs and get him now while you still can.
Buy: Alex Witherden
In past years, Alex Witherden has been the equivalent of the Boeing Max. A shiny brand new sleek machine that promised the world (and an early draft pick) only to later find out about serious structural deficiencies forcing him to sit in the hanger for the reminder of the year to be re worked. Well, now Witherden is in a team that has struggled to field 18 fit players, job security isn’t an issue. He’s finally repaying the fantasy faith, averaging 96.2 so far this year, and looking like the most solid fantasy option in the entire West Coast Team. If you can get him, he’s a no brainer, and should be for the rest of the year.
Hold: Touk Miller
This is a really easy one, just hold onto him. Yes, Touk owners hoped he could average over 130 this year, and yes, his sudden reluctance to engage in any physical contact while playing one of the world’s more physical sports is mystifying, but he’s still scoring well and racking up the outside ball at will. If he had nailed just 3 tackles this week, he would have scored over 110. He’s still an Uber premium (he has a high score of 147 in round 2), trust that the scores will come. Touk still has more upside than most players in the game.
Hold: Jy Simpkin
A bit of a theme in the ‘Hold’ section this week is midfielders not performing in line with expectations. Jy is another to add to this list, with an average of 91.8 well below the breakout we’d hoped for. Despite this, he’s still scored 3 tons in 5 games and will continue to be a valuable and importantly, fieldable midfielder for the rest of the season. The key to remember, is that by trading him out now, you won’t get much value for him, and he’s still scoring well above the average free agent, so the best play is to hold on to him and cross your fingers and toes that those low scoring games are aberrations.
Hold: Matt Crouch
Matt Crouch slid in a lot of drafts, leaving coaches such as myself, convinced that we’d snagged an M2 at M4. Unfortunately, he’s taken his time building match fitness and hasn’t pumped out anything massive so far. He’ll be even more important in coming weeks following Sloane’s season ending injury and hopefully he’ll return to his former glory in the second half of the year. He’s young at 26, he’s still a key cog in the Adelaide engine room, and he’s a proven scorer, with 4 years in a row (if you include his 88 average in coronaball) averaging over 104. Matt also has a history of finishing seasons with a string of massive scores, so keep holding, even if you’re not seeing much yet!
Sell: Steele Sidebottom
A distant memory are the days when Sidey averaged over 100 for 5 seasons in a row. Most people still view him as a premium forward option, but the reality is, he hasn’t been for a while. Last year he averaged 88, which while respectable, was no where near the first to second round pick people used to get him. This year, with Collingwood’s change in game style and Steele’s continued decline, his average in the mid 60s will most likely see him sitting next to Nathan Buckley in expert commentary next year. Luckily, you should be able to get some really decent value this year from coaches having to field players like Silvagni or Gryan Miers in their forward lines. Do a deal now, before he becomes untouchable.
Sell: Nick Blakey
Blakey started the year on fire and caused some premature victory laps from salary cap players and people scouting the waiver wire in the early rounds. While he put up some banger scores to match his banging mullet in the first three rounds, Justin McInerney has returned, and Blakey has only managed 55 and 67. J-Mac does have a haircut you can set your watch to and is clearly the preferred prime mover in that back / midfield role. Sell him while he retains his value, as I think his average will continue to trend downwards in the coming weeks. Then you’ll have to drop him for nothing, which to be fair, was what you paid for him in the first place.
Add: Brandon Ellis
I couldn’t finish this article without adding at least one player who picked up a new position this round. One of the most relevant is Brandon Ellis. He’s been disappointing so far as a midfielder, averaging a barely fieldable 77.2. Now that he has back status however, he’s a very solid D4 or D5, with the potential to be your D2 if he lifts his scores to his ceiling of last year. Ellis has also shown a reasonable floor this season, with one score in the 50s and every other score 75+. If he’s sitting on your waiver wire or free agent list, grab him immediately!
Add: Jack Hayes
In his 4 games this year, Jack Hayes is averaging a respectable but unremarkable 71.8. If you take out the game he played with Paddy Ryder however, his average shoots up to 80.7, in line with O’Brien, Marshall, and Witts. With forward eligibility, this makes Hayes very handy as bench cover, or even to field if you’re currently starting Lycett, Oscar McInerny, or heaven help you, Todd Goldstein. While Ryder’s away, Jack Hayes will play, so scoop him up while you can.
Drop: Nathan Broad
Broad has had a massive start to the year, averaging above 90 in his first 4 games, which really came out of nowhere. While he was great cover for the first 4 weeks, Nick Vlaustin is now back and is clearly the Tiger’s preferred ball user. This leaves Broad out in the cold, with minimal value going forward. If you can get value for him in a trade, I would 100% go for it, but I put him here because I don’t think he has much name value, having never been fantasy relevant (he has a previous highest average of 67). It would be a big call to drop a guy averaging 86, but if you can’t do a deal, get rid of him no while there are still some gems averaging over 75 on the free agency list.
Drop: Tom De Koning
When Pittonet went down, TDK owners and waiver bargain hunters thought they’d struck gold. The phrase ‘De Koning szn’ was reverberating around the twittersphere, and we were ready for a much-needed ruck breakout. Unfortunately, he repaid this hype with an underwhelming 62 and was dropped the following week when the Pit Bull returned. If you picked him up, drop him like he’s hot (which with an average of 51, he certainly isn’t).