Being a bye round with only two thirds of teams playing, I’ve adjusted this week’s dozen deals accordingly, with 8 deals instead of the usual 12. Hopefully there’s still some food for thought for your trades this week!
In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD, or DROP. This is based on a 10 team 22 player roster. BUY, SELL, HOLD, and DROP will apply to players that are generally owned, while ADD will cover players you may find on the waiver wire or as a free agent.
Support the pod: http://buymeacoffee.com/thedraftdoF
Well folks… when your right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time!
We’re past the halfway point in the season and we’re in the midst of the bye rounds, so now seems as good a time as any to reflect on what’s gone right and more hilariously, where my trade advice has left egg on my face this season.
If you picked up a couple of big Timmy English, Tom Stewart, Cam Guthrie, Jack Sinclair, Isaac Cumming, Witherden, Gresham, Brad Crouch or an underpriced Jarryd Lyons, your team’s probably looking pretty solid at the moment.
Unfortunately, my drop category seems to be just the rocket that struggling players have needed to rejuvenate their season. Jack Redden, Liam Baker, Nick Blakey, Connor Rozee, Caleb Daniel, Seb Ross, and Matt Rowell have all to varying degrees turned around their fortunes and proven to be handy players.
This leads me to my main point for the week (other than that I am very often wrong in calling for a player to be cut). One coach’s trash is often another coach’s treasure; something that is doubly true over the bye rounds when desperate coaches drop decent players to scrape together a decent score on the field. Scour the free agent and waiver lists carefully this week and next in search of a hidden gem!
Of course, it’s a long season, and lots of trades won’t be proven a success or failure until after the grand final. How have your trade moves gone? Let me know what’s worked and what hasn’t on socials or in the comments: @NickbWest
Buy: Jack Graham
I’ve been waiting for it with bated breath all season, but it’s finally happened, Jack Graham has been released into the midfield and his scores have shown a huge upswing in the last month. While Jack’s average of 80 is underwhelming given his rating as a potential top 10 forward this year, in the last month he has pumped out averages of 96.75 AF 104.75 SC; a return finally on par with our pre-season predictions.
Buy: Jordan Clark
Another player who has always been viewed through the lens of his sizeable potential, many of us have had Jordy in our ‘never again’ black books after his fantasy melt down last year. Much like Jack Graham, he’s now delivering, averaging a serviceable 80 AF and 84 SC. In the last six weeks however, that serviceable average shoots up to 91, putting him at around the 16th ranked defender. Clark also has the bye this week, which makes it even more likely you can get a deal done with a desperate owner chasing points on field. Now that he’s got the role and some nice form behind him, make an offer and jump on board.
Hold/Buy: Ollie Wines
This is more for AF owners, as with an average of 111 in the last six weeks and a floor of 93, Ollie is a super coach buy rather than a hold. He had a bad AFL fantasy week, only managing 72 points, and missed out on a ton with 86 the week before, but despite an underwhelming 95 average, I wouldn’t entertain a trade for him. Our expectations are super high after his Brownlow winning 2021 season, but when you take out his injury affected 36 in round 4, Ollie’s average rises to 101; much closer to what we expect from a premium mid. He also has the ability to pump out a big hundred, and with matches against Essendon and Adelaide in the last two weeks of the year, don’t let him slip your grasp… If anything, as I write this I’m more and more convinced he’s a buy in all formats!
Hold: Darcy Parish
Yes, he had an injury and ruined the week of many a team, particularly if you put the captain’s armband on him. But unless his calf rules him out for the majority of the year, there’s no way you’d pry Parish away from me. He’s Essendon’s number 1 mid, an uber premium through and through, and has shown an amazing ceiling over the last two seasons. While he carries some risk of dropping the occasional low score, he can also get on a run, with 13 tons last year and another 8 already this season. In SC he’s practically bomb proof, with a low of 97 this year. I guess my message here is that at this stage of the year, you can still carry an injury to key players for a few weeks without needing to offload them. Don’t get trigger happy just yet.
Sell: Nicholas Martin
Time to write Nic Martin off as 2022’s biggest fantasy failure… I mean who can’t at least match their debut game stat wise? Surely, we all expect 27 disposals and 5 goals as his benchmark now! All jokes aside, the first-year rookie has had an incredible season, scoring 3 tons and averaging a very handy 85 and is an outstanding hold in a keeper league. My worry is that while he doesn’t drop really low scores, 6 of his 11 games have been between 65 and 73. It’s also unusual for rookies to finish a season stronger than they start it. You never know, someone out there might be keen on him and offer you a decent mid to bolster your team over the coming weeks. He’s not terminal, but you need to offer players with some upside to make a trade work, and this could be a good way to improve your list.
Sell: Luke McDonald
A couple of weeks after scoring back-to-back tons, things have taken a drastic turn for Luke McDonald. Aaron Hall is now back, and it seems this has corresponded to a complete loss of fantasy relevance for a player who relies on being used as an outlet to boost his scoring. With Hall taking the primary seagull roll, I think a string of low scores is to be expected. Of course, if Hall hurts his dodgy hammy again, McDonald will rise sharply in value, but I’d be looking to offload him if you have the opportunity.
Add: James Jordon
You must have some moxy (or just great banter) to have the last name Jordon (even if it’s spelt slightly differently) and give yourself the number 23 jersey. MJ23 may be the GOAT but JJ23 is also a perfectly serviceable midfield option this year. It is a bit of a long shot including him here, as it will most likely be shallower leagues that he’ll still be floating around the waivers. Don’t expect Jordon to go big very often, but in the last 5 weeks he’s been super serviceable, with an average of 91 AF (95 SC). There’s an added bonus, in that if he scores another ton in the next fortnight, he may have trade value for the end of the year. If Jordan isn’t available, I would keep an eye out for players that others have dropped over the byes who still have upside or some trade capital.
Drop: Will Day
One of my favourites, because he clearly has the ability to be a fantasy jet, something he’s already shown in his first three years in the system. Unfortunately, injury and role issues have got the better of him this year. He will probably score at least another ton at some point, but 60 to 70 is probably where his average will sit at the season’s end. HODL tight if you’re in a keeper, but for most of us, it’s time to cut him loose.