Being a bye round with only two thirds of teams playing, I’ve adjusted this week’s dozen deals accordingly, with 8 deals instead of the usual 12. Hopefully there’s still some food for thought for your trades this week!
In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD, or DROP. This is based on a 10 team 22 player roster. BUY, SELL, HOLD, and DROP will apply to players that are generally owned, while ADD will cover players you may find on the waiver wire or as a free agent.
The chaos of the bye rounds is now done and dusted, ladders in leagues across the country have been shaken up, and we can now let the dust settle, ready to make a charge to the finals.
So far, each of our trades has been geared towards one thing only; making our team as strong as it can possibly be. Now that the ladder is really taking shape however, it’s time to think about not only the contents of our trade offers, but who we are trading with.
For example, if you’re in second place on your league ladder, the last thing you want to do is make the person above you stronger than they already are. The same logic applies to teams sitting just outside the top 4 (or 6 or 8 depending on your league setup). A timely trade could prove the difference for you, however if you are in 5th place and improve the 4th place team to the point that you can’t jump above them, it was all for nothing.
I’m not suggesting you put a trade embargo on teams near you on the ladder (a coach in my home league has had an embargo on me for the last decade, and boy is that frustrating!) but consider weather your proposed trade will benefit you more than them. For example, if you need forwards and have plenty of defenders and your opposition needs defenders and somehow has an excess of decent forward options, the chances are you’ll find a win-win scenario. If it improves your team by 10 points, but it improves the opposing coach’s by 25, I would think twice about it. If it gives you both a 10 point bump, or even better, it improves your team by more than theirs however, I’d still be taking the deal! As they say in poker, play the opponent, not just the cards.
Good luck and happy trading!
Buy: Jack Billings
At his best, he’s a mid to high 90s guy who is always a sneaky chance of forward eligibility. At his worst, he’s a JAG who can hover around the mid 80s. This season, I think he’ll be someone who sits in the middle of that spectrum. Why I like him is that he can knock out regular tons and has a massive ceiling (he scored 170 in round 13, 2019). He also won’t cost much given his mid only status and last year’s form. You could do a lot worse to bolster your midfield, and while he has a propensity to deliver a few 50s here and there, he has the potential to push towards a solid 90ish average!
Buy: Nick Vlastuin
Richmond have rightly been considered fantasy kryptonite, with Jayden Short being the only real A-Grader of fantasy consequence on their list. As a result, Nick Vlastuin has been overlooked this year as a reliable scorer. He’s never averaged over 80 in past seasons, yet has taken a massive leap this year, going at 92.8 AF and 99.5 SC. He’s also been super consistent and as the 13th ranked defender on average, would make an excellent D3 you could well pick up for D4-5 prices.
Buy: Mason Redman
At the start of the season, the narrative around Essendon in fantasy football circles was that the acquisition of Kelly would free up Ridley to increase his scoring. With Ridley continuing to play an accountable role however, it seems the unexpected upside has come for Mason Redman who has played higher up the ground and increased his possession count. He’s averaging a massive 99.4 in his last 5 (in SC he averages 104.7 from his last 7) and looks like a great undervalued target, although his score last week will make him harder to nab on the cheap.
Sell: Willem Drew
A real steak knives player, Drew only appears here instead of the drop section, as you may be able to use him to get other trades over the line with opponents who are carrying shallow midfields. He’s averaging a paltry 73.5 AF (a slightly better 85.2 SC) which is slightly above the mids available on the free agent list in most leagues. He might scrape together another ton or 2, but the most likely scenario is that he gives you a string of 60s to finish the year. You’d be better off streaming players week to week instead.
Sell: Dyson Heppell
His scores aren’t terminal, but with a role that sees him fluctuating between midfield and defense, Dyson is just not delivering the consistency we were hoping for from a guy many drafted as a D1. 5 scores under 80 AF (6 in SC) and nothing over 110 (one big score in SC) is enough for me to explore a trade. He has a history of elite scoring with 7 of his 11 seasons seeing him average above 90. As a result, you may well be able to get some decent value for him.
Hold: Dan Houston
Thanks to three big games where he’s gone above 120, Dan the Man is averaging a career best 94.6 AF (and a massive 104 SC). When he has a couple of underwhelming scores in a row it’s easy to forget that a lot of people drafted him as a D3 or even D4. Don’t offload him for a 70 here or there, he’s shown a great ceiling already this season and will likely have a few more big games up his sleave for you.
Add: Riley Bonner
Another Port player who has shown a great ceiling this year, if Bonner is siting on your waiver wire, scoop him up. Job security is his biggest issue, but like a Witherden Lite, when selected, he tends to score pretty well most of the time (60% of the time he works every time!)
Drop: Tanner Bruhn
A player quite a few people have scooped up off the waiver wire, this 20 year old showed some fantasy chops for the first time in round 13 with a 102 AF and 127 SC. Despite this breakout game, with Taranto and hopper still to return, it seems unlikely that he’ll maintain the position that saw him rack up fantasy relevant amounts of the pill. He was worth a punt, but return him to the free agency list and try someone else.