In Dozen Deals we use BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD, or DROP. This is based on a 10 team 22 player roster. BUY, SELL, HOLD, and DROP will apply to players that are generally owned, while ADD will cover players you may find on the waiver wire or as a free agent.
For those that have made finals and are starting this week, well done and good luck! For those that are sitting on the sidelines or looking down that barrel at any number of wooden spoon challenges, commiserations and next year’s planning starts now! For those coaches that have a final week scramble to make a top four (and don’t have a trade deadline), this article is for you!
Don’t put the cue in the rack just because you’re on the cusp of finals and other teams have had better seasons. Even if you just scrape in and come up against a team that’s only dropped a game or two, you’ll still have at least a 10-20% chance of a fairytale victory. Unexpected losses suck when you’ve been a dominant team all year, but the unpredictability that makes sport exciting means if you can make finals, you’re in with a chance, just like the 2016 Bulldogs. That means it’s time to be brave, trade injured premiums, and look for advantageous matchups that could bring you an unexpected last-gasp victory!
Buy: Rowan Marshall
RoMar is hardly a hidden gem, in fact he’s probably the most obvious buy pick since the bye rounds. The fact remains however that Ryder is out, and he has a 20 point bump to his average when playing as a solo ruck. If you can get him, it’s a must buy! Forward eligibility also means he’s a player who will benefit any team, not just those with ruck issues (which to be fair, is 90% of us).
Buy: Hayden Young
If you’re looking for a super consistent defender with a decent run home (Melbourne in round 20 looks juicy for defenders) Hayden Young could be your guy. His lowest score since round 3 is 75 and looks like a guaranteed contributor who won’t cost you the world.
Buy: Aaron Hall
Are you looking to take a risk at the last minute that could completely blow up in your face? Daniel Rich and Aaron Hall are both returning from injury this week (pending team announcements, they’re both listed as a test) and could both go big and drag your team to the top of the ladder. I like Hall’s matchup against the Hawks here, if (and it’s a massive if) he can play more than 80 odd minutes without a soft tissue twanging like a guitar at a country music festival. His ceiling is massive, so as a Hail Mary play, you could do worse.
Hold: Matt Rowell
If you’re desperate for a mid to loophole or play as your M7, Rowell could be worth a shot based on matchups for the last three weeks. Brisbane, West Coast, and Hawthorn all represent good opportunities for him to make solid contributions. Before this week he’d averaged 94 in his last 5 games, so while I wouldn’t be banging down people’s doors to buy him, I would certainly keep him around for the last three weeks.
Hold: Harry Perryman
Now this one may be a long shot, as many coaches have dumped Perryman through his injury and murky TBC status. If you are a coach who’s held the faith (or lucky enough to have room on your bench in a league that has him on the waiver wire), there is some chatter about a return in the next week or so. If you can carry him without 0’s in your defense, he could be a great addition to your team for the last weeks of finals. Grab him and HODL until we hear more!
Sell: Taylor Adams
Essendon then Port are not amazing matchups for midfielders, and he has Melbourne in round 21. Add on the fact that Adams has had a shocker of a year for a player drafted as an M2 in most leagues. I was desperately hoping he’d come good and bought plenty of shares in TayTay throughout the season, but unfortunately, while he’s delivered a few fieldable scores, it’s been a bust given the value we know he can produce. Sell him on the back of his round 17 ton and the remaining name value he has left.
Sell: Tom Green
GWS’s midfield bull started the season like a bull in a China shop but now that’s leaving a bit of a mess for you to clean up with some below par scores in the last few weeks. He still holds a decent enough average, so you might be able to package him up with another player and get more value than you would on the waiver wire to strengthen another line in your team.
Sell: Josh Daicos
If you have held Josh Daicos through this average run of form, then you must have nerves of steel as I would have dropped him after his 48 against Melbourne in round 13! He is starting to show some good form and in the last 4 weeks he has scored 85, 86, 85 and 86…. That’s some kind of consistency. Unfortunately, he has a shocking run coming up (much like Adams), so package him up with another player while his value is holding and send him on his way.
Add: Jack Lukosius
I recently picked him off the waiver wire for this part of the season. He’s back playing in defence which suits his fantasy game. He also has had time to pick up the speed of the game after a long layoff, which resulted in a solid 93 this week. There’s a tough matchup this week against Brisbane (so maybe loophole him off the bench this week), but then tastier finals games against West Coast and Hawthorn await.
Add: Zac Fisher
Flying under the radar, Fisher has managed to average 92 over the last month after going at under 70 for the first portion of the season. I’d be confident nabbing him from the waiver wire if you can, he would make a very handy M5 and has some upside in his ceiling, with the ability to kick goals and rack up touches on his day.
Drop: David Swallow
If he’s still in your side, consider a drop here. In the last 5 he averages 53.6. That’s not fieldable. At this point, he’s not worthy of being called a JAG, just drop him.
Drop: Brad Hill
Coming in to a must win game or a finals series, you just can’t carry a guy who could deliver you a sub 30 turd of a score score at any moment. 4 times this year he’s dropped a nugget under 50 and torpedoed a round for trusting coaches. Don’t risk it for a player with very marginal upside. Let someone else pick him up and risk their season.