A Dozen Deals 5/6

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One of the most fun aspects of playing draft style fantasy football is making trades. It’s not like the salary cap version where you just make them, in draft you’re haggling with league mates and trying to get the best deal and sell high, buy low – all while balancing your team for a tilt at a premiership.

If you’re new to the Draft Doctors podcast, the ‘A Dozen Deals’ article has been a staple for 2 years, where each week I write about various transactions you could make; be it a BUY, SELL, HOLD, ADD or DROP. Buy, sell and hold all relate to players who are most likely owned, and add/drop to players who may or may not be, more fringe type players. I base these suggestions on a 10 team-22 player roster, so depending on your league size and format, there may be some variation in value (which I will generally specify). The whole point of the article was to give opinions on making moves in your draft league. Did all the moves work out? Not quite. However, through the season there was a very high success rate and by and large they worked out.

ADD – BEN AINSWORTH (F) – Still of the shockingly low-ownership %, Ainsworth is running through the middle, winning his own pill and hitting the scoreboard. With so many injuries/suspensions hitting lower end forwards this week, Ainsworth looms as fantastic bye week coverage, having already had his bye. Looking for 80+ each week shouldn’t be a stretch.

BUY – JARRAD LYONS (M) – Really looking to buy for a song here, Lyons was sensationally dumped ahead of round 11. Not that he set the world alight in the NEAFL on the weekend but he has to figure into the Suns’ plans in the second half of the year. Cooled significantly from his hot start, but the scores are there. With good mids becoming scant, look to grab at the discount. Don’t be discouraged if he’s not named this week, this is a longer term play. I’d be offloading a forward if possible.

BUY – MICHAEL HIBBERD (D) – Hibbo’s having a down year based on last year’s output. The interesting thing is that his numbers this year are closer to his career norms than last year. The thing that stands out to me from Hibberd’s 2017 was how many intercept possessions he got. We talked in the preseason about how he was the player who would be affected most by Lever’s arrival. Well, unfortunately Lever is now out for the year. My Year 9 level maths ability then connects dots and imagines that Hibberd is in line to benefit. Also, he has to be coming in at a massive discount based on where he was drafted at the start of the year.

ADD – BEN KEAYS (F) – Owned by no-one, Keays was a late in and found himself in his usual forward role. He scored ok as everyone got a run up the ground with the Lions suffering a multitude of injuries. Given Mitch Robinson and Charlie Cameron are set to miss extended time, there will be a couple of ins for the Lions and maybe it’s Bastinac, Cox or Mathieson who come back in, or the man who was a late out (Berry – who is also lowly owned and a worthy add), someone’s getting some points. It’s hard to see Keays losing his spot though and he can certainly score.

SELL – LUKE DAHLHAUS (F) – Only coming in with an average that places him as a low end F3, F4 or F5 depending on your fantasy platform, it’s clear that Dahlhaus isn’t returning value. Has massive #brand value so you can probably flip him for some value. Have seen him flipped successfully in my home league and shook my head accordingly. Dahl’s scores are easily replaced off the waiver wire, why not try fix up another part of the ground with less replaceability.

SELL – BRAD EBERT (M) – Part of Brad Ebert’s ability to be a reliable fantasy asset was his time on ground. Whether he was inside or out, he’d play a good amount of TOG and make his score up in the appropriate area depending on role – inside/tackles; outside/marks. And things were rolling along as usual this year, averaging in the mid 80% TOG. However, the last three weeks Ebert has been in the mid 70s twice and on the weekend registered a paltry 63% TOG. Looking at my inner Disco Stu – if these trends continue….my goodness. Ebert’s season long average is still handy so finding a trade partner shouldn’t be too hard in this mid-needy world we live in.

BUY – CONNOR BLAKELY (M/D) – Obviously has D status some places, pure M in others, but this is an eye on picking up a good player cheap for a finals run, especially if you play rounds 19 to 22. The reason being the home/away splits for Blakely are astounding and Freo plays rounds 19, 20 and 21 in Perth before getting the defender friendly Cats in round 22. The splits are: DT 105/home 71/away; SC 94/home 68/away.  Huge.  Given he’s had three poor games in a row, you might be able to flip someone replaceable for someone who can help you have a big crack at your league title.

DROP – DARCY PARISH (M/F) – Wasn’t scoring, wasn’t in the seniors and is now out for 8 weeks with a busted thumb.

DROP – BAILEY DALE (M/F) – Out for 4-6 weeks but is a sporadic scorer at best. Seemed to have all the opportunity heading into the season but hasn’t made it work. Cut the cord.

HOLD – MITCH ROBINSON (M/F) – Busted toe. Obviously not ideal given we’re at the bye rounds, but should only miss a couple of weeks according to reports and, in his current role, is a top ten forward. As much as the position is of arguably the lowest value, the good ‘uns don’t grow on trees and retain value.

BUY – LUKE SHUEY (M) – Has been injured and WCE are on bye. Might be an attainable midfield target. Wouldn’t be paying heaps for him as he’s not really a guy I look to captain, and if your finals run in round 19 WCE play North and Jacobs. But he’s a guy who can sure help you get there if your midfield needs some beefing up.

DROP – STEVE MAY (D) – 4-6 weeks out at this time of year, I’d be trying to find some value over the byes. If you’re a SuperCoacher and you don’t play the byes, holding’s fine.

Good trading and of course, good luck in your matchups!

7 comments on “A Dozen Deals 5/6”

  1. JJK did amazing last week with no Carlisle.

    Same theory, Patton vs Mayless Suns? And have Buddy vs Saints 😉

    1. Geez Patton’s been a disappointment. Would roll with him, was getting up the ground on the weekend and would expect GWS to roll the Suns. Buddy looms large!

  2. Is it time to drop Bruest for a Mitch Wallis or a Ryan Lester type. Both M/F. I’ve got one to many key forwards and is it the best forward line strategy to have for finals.

    1. If Wallis plays he generally scores pretty well. With so many forwards out there, you don’t have to be loyal to those bottom end guys so much, I know Breust has been great at times, maybe try trade, but I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over moving on. Is having key forwards a good strategy for finals? Depends who they are, who the matchups are and how many have you got. If your keys are Buddy, Hogan and say a J Cameron, you might get away with it.

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