Following on from Wednesday’s podcast, there are some more candidates who may be overdrafted and regress next season.
JARROD WITTS – Anytime someone breaks a record, it should be a red flag signalling possible regression. Witts broke the home and away hitout record, so there might not be a huge dropoff given a hitout’s low point value. However, where it can really hurt is the ruckmen drafted after Witts (and in particular in the later rounds) will now be better value in comparison.
CHRISTIAN SALEM – Salem has retained DEF status. His main way of building a score is through uncontested possessions. Melbourne have brought in two genuine wingmen, Langdon who especially builds through uncontested ball. This leads to increased internal competition. With Nathan Jones looking at a defensive role; and the unknown being Bailey Fritsch possibly reverting to the backline after his forward foray late in the year, there is reason for concern regarding Salem.
TOBY GREENE – With so many of 2019’s top forwards losing FWD status, Greene will enter 2020 as a top listed (by average) player. However, don’t be fooled, his 2019 score is a mirage. A late season run in the midfield boosted his numbers into another stratosphere, a role he is unlikely to retain. Callan Ward, Steve Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Matt De Boer all missed big chunks of the season, meaning GWS pushed players like Greene and Zac Williams through the midfield. With a deep group and impressive youngsters coming through, expect Greene to move back to the forward role that earned him and All Australian nod.
BRAYDEN FIORINI – A favourite of the pod, and especially Dos, Fiorini’s time in the centre square dried up as the 2019 season did – and so did his fantasy scoring. A push to the wing made Fiorini borderline unownable in fantasy. Couple that in 2020 with the top draftees coming in along with Hugh Greenwood and Brandon Ellis, plus a returning from injury Bowes, Brodie and Ainsworth and there are more questions than answers at the Gold Coast Suns, and with Fiorini’s role (and perhaps place in the team).
CALLAN WARD – This one hurts. As an unabashed Ward fan, he’s been as reliable and durable as they come before 2019. Previously only missing 5 home and away games in 8 seasons, things when pear shaped after an interrupted preseason and subsequent knee injury upon return. What we witnessed in his absence was the eruption of Tim Taranto to fantasy stardom, Matt De Boer becoming king of the taggers and the rest of the GWS mids doing as they pleased when they were on the park. It’s hard to see Ward, who turns 30 in April, being able to sustain his usual numbers coming off an ACL with so much dynamic talent around him. The internal competition is massive. Also, we may experience a dip in his usual mid 80% TOG. How big a bust he could be may well depend on his ADP – the later Ward’s drafted, the better it is obviously. But go too early and this one may bite you, unfortunately.
SHANE SAVAGE – So with St Kilda bringing in a raft of players, the development of Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield plus the potential returns of Dylan Roberton and Jimmy Webster, there should be concern about Savage’s potential output in 2020. He was a top 20 defender by total score in both formats and a top 30 by average in SuperCoach, whilst just missing the top 30 in AFL Fantasy. He did suffer a scoring drop of 7 AFL Fantasy points and 3 SuperCoach points per game in the second half of 2019 compared to the first, with Clark and Coffield becoming mainstays in the Saints backline. Based on average, you’d expect he’ll be going in the early double digit rounds, but there looks to be better value elsewhere.
ROWAN MARSHALL – No doubt was a league winner for many lucky enough to have the pride of Portland their teams in 2019, but ominous clouds loom overhead heading into season 2020 with the arrival of Paddy Ryder at St Kilda. Split ruck situations are a bad sign, time spent forward is time spent away from the ball, usually leading to lower scores for ruckmen. Of course, things could actually break Marshall’s way. Ryder hasn’t been a beacon of health in recent seasons, and if there’s enough bad press in fantasy circles about Marshall in the preseason, he may drop to become something of a value.
Of course, these are all estimates of players draft value and ADP. We won’t have a great idea on that until the games themselves open up or, even better, you check out the Draft Doctors Mock Draft simulator, where you can practice drafting against constantly updating ADPs or our ranks. Set your league size, on field settings and go! The simulator opens late Jan/early Feb, so stay tuned and hone those draft skills.
Make sure to stay tuned to the Draft Doctors podcast and website for more draft #content.