Everyone wants a value, but not every player is one. Whether it’s lack of upside, not completing a full preseason or additions to the team that could mean a role change, some players get overdrafted. They then don’t return value during the season and set you back on your quest to win your league. Let’s take a look at a few.
2021 Draft Kit: https://bit.ly/3tYsI7t
Mock Draft Simulator: https://bit.ly/2Zc7JA2
- Jack Gunston (F) ADP 100
It’s been pretty well publicised that Gunston is missing all the preseason and at least a few early rounds of the home and away season with a back injury, yet his ADP is still hovering around 100. It’s hard to see him replicating his productive 2020 coming off this injury, especially when it looks like the Hawks are destined to struggle in 2021. Kane Lambert, Jack Higgins, Sam Powell-Pepper and other seemingly better options are all available for the same price (or later) and won’t be missing time.
2. Elliot Yeo (M) ADP 98
I really like Yeo as a player, but the last thing I want is someone dealing with osteitis pubis heading into the season. Preseason will be more important than ever, with it being shorter and rotations being cut. Couple that with West Coast’s midfield being chock full of talent as it is, and it’s hard to see Yeo drafters not having issues with him through the year. Still a bit early here when you can get guys like JOM, Ollie Wines and Jarrod Berry for around the same price and lots of other good mids even later (Cerra, etc).
3. Sam Naismith (R) ADP 194
I would never usually bitch about a player drafted so late but people, c’mon. He’s missing the bulk of the season with an ACL injury and Sam Draper is still getting drafted after him? Give your head a shake.
4. Jarrod Witts (R) ADP 62
Witts is terrible value. There, I said it. He’s had one banger year in AFL Fantasy, and by banger I mean over 100. And in that year he set the hitouts record. It’s no surprise he dropped off last year and why he should be more like who he’s been before that year, which is a middling ruckman. Now, Witts has some redeeming features, in that he’s the main man, he’s durable and there’s no split ruck set up at the Suns. However, you can get Tim English ten picks later, or even better, get Nankervis/Preuss/Stanley?etc ten rounds later and use that earlier pick to bolster your mids or forward line. At that point you’re passing on Rozee, De Goey, Pendles, Isaac Smith, Andy Brayshaw for a guy that might outscore a late ruck by 5 points over the season.
5. Shai Bolton (M/F) ADP 49
I like Shai Bolton, he’s great to watch, and maybe him going here says more about the forwards than anything, but jeez it feels early to me. He has put out a couple of okay scores and a lot of middling ones, and the forwards being selected around him aren’t without their warts also. De Goey, Butters, Wingard are all in the same area, whilst Rozee, Lambert, Isaac Smith and Hawkins are all going 20 odd picks later. Bolton definitely gets the mid time, is in a gun side and can score, I just would’ve liked to have seen more to get around a pick before 50. The 11th forward off the board – it feels like a few of those guys I mentioned will end up ahead of him – or will they? Interesting player, just too rich for me.
6. Isaac Heeney (F) ADP 33
Need to see something outta Heeney over the preseason before I’m biting in this range. Heeney’s been pretty consistent over his career so far, being that guy who can score well as a forward but isn’t going to get that consistent midfield time to see him rifle up to a 100 average. He’s like Toby Greene and Chad Wingard in that respect, and he might be the best scorer as a pure forward, but he’s coming off a serious ankle injury and is going ahead of all those guys. I’m not saying he won’t be right, but training reports have him coming along rather than firing and I want to see it first. Still might not be great value when he’s essentially the same as others in terms of being capped when others are fit and have perhaps a better shot/clearer path to midfield minutes.
A bit tough on poor Jarrod. Yeh, he did have a down year last year with an average of 65.4 in a year that was difficult for many players. But in his 3 years as the Suns No. 1 he has averages of (going backwards) 104, 93 and 92. In only one of his 3 years at the Pies, in the shadow of Grundy, was his average worse than last year’s. Are you kicking a man after one down year?
Don’t see it as kicking at all. You might see one bad year, I see one good one. If he averages 92-93, I’d rather spend that pick 60 on a f/m/d and grab a ruck in rd 16 who can average 87-88 than picking up a lottery pick. If you want to rely on him setting records to get to 100, go for it, it could happen. Too rich for my blood and thought it was really fairly explained tbh. Cheers for the reply, good stuff
Steve, I’m not sure which ruck likely to average 87-88 you envisage lasting to round 16 of any 10 team draft. Last year only 8 rucks averaged 86 or better and they included Naismith from 2 games (will he play any this year?) and Jenkins from 1 game (will he ever play again?). Three other rucks from that 8 have injury problems. Wait until round 16 for your R1 and, if you are lucky if Ryder and Ceglar are still available. Witts would probably be looking rather good around then. Even by your own ruck rankings Witts is the 6th best in the competition. At what point in a year when rucks are ravaged by injury should you grab the 6th best who turns up every week to play? There are plenty of backs, mids and even forwards, but rucks?
I mean, Nanks done it before, Big O could do it with the solo role. Wrote the piece before Preuss inj but had him in that area too. Hell, Sinclair has done a 92 (not that im saying draft him) so people pop. Not sure what depth you’re seeing in the forwards that others aren’t, but good luck. If you’re a ‘well, this happened last year so itll happen again’ player, good luck again. If you love Witts, hey, thats what its all about
On Shai Bolton, I know that Richmond don’t have the most fantasy friendly game but he’s got guaranteed midfield time and looked slik running through there in 2020. Rating De Goey as a better pick intrigues me, what are you forecasting from him in 2021? Although Treloars gone, I didn’t think he would be getting that much mid time with the likes of Daicos coming through.
Cheers.
Yeah, I’m seeing Daicos as an outside player, not saying JDG is a perma mid but he certainly gets a bump. Hell, the Pies used Elliot through there last year. Still think Bolton is at best the fourth option for Tigers (re your other comment), like him but without a few injuries don’t see the huge upside, esp in Tigers system.
Appreciate your last comment, Steve. And did I hear Mrs Fizz is 39 weeks pregnant? If I got that right, best of luck to the 2 of your. Cherish it – it will be one of the best times of your life.
thanks mate appreciate it